Severe Thunderstorm Warning 205, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...HAVE HAD A BUSY DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER. AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME
DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED BY 06Z...SO
MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE LEFT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE
NIGHT. WITH DEEP TROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AND NEXT SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING. DEEP COLD POOL CROSSING THE
CWA SATURDAY AND HAVE LEFT IN THE MENTION OF CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...DRY AND COOL FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME WEAK WAVES
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO LEFT IN THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA TO THE AREA. FIRST LINE OF ACTIVITY/MCS EXITING FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF RESPITE ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND. ACTUAL FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
PVA YET TO PASS. ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IL/W TN...THAT
WILL DEVELOP A LINE THAT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. AFT 06Z...MUCH COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND SOME SHRA NC/NE GA WITH COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SAT. CLEARING WILL OCCUR AFT 00Z SUN.

CEILINGS...GENERALLY MVFR-VFR THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SHRS/TSRA
ACTIVITY. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF LINE OF EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SAT.

VISIBILITY...GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN SHRA/TSRA THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF SHRA NC/NE GA SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NE GA AND
NOT IN THE ATL OR AHN TAF SITES.

WX...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE NE-SW ORIENTED SQUALL LINE...ALBEIT
BRIEF...OF TSRA TO AFFECT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE 0.5-1.0 INCH HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 50KTS. ISOLD
SHRA POSSIBLE MAINLY N-NE OF ATL AND AHN 15Z-20Z SAT.

WINDS...INITIALLY...IN ADVANCE OF EXPECTED SQUALL LINE THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW 5-10KTS. WINDS GUSTS TO 50KTS
POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE SVR SQUALL LINE 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. WINDS
GENERALLY 260-280 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING RAPIDLY AROUND
12Z TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AFT 12Z. WIND WILL BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT TAF ISSUE FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         55  60  37  57 /  40  30  10  10
ATHENS          56  62  37  57 /  60  30  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  59  36  57 /  40  30  10  10
ROME            53  62  35  59 /  50  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        59  66  39  63 /  60  30  10  10
MACON           59  67  38  61 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

41/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1148 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-230900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1148 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA
FROM ATLANTA TO ATHENS THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
COLUMBUS AND MACON BY MID AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.  THIS EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 RANGE AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE.  THIS EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED AND SHOULD BE
MONITORING WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE DESIGNATED AREAS. SKYWARN
OPERATORS ALSO HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF IT OCCURS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF MACON EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME CRITICAL SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY
OR THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

JD

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