Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 090242
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXC259-090252-
/O.EXP.KEWX.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-050509T0245Z/
KENDALL TX-
942 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KENDALL COUNTY EXPIRES AT 945
PM CDT...

LAT...LON 2979 9892 3013 9892 3013 9892 3013 9859
      3000 9847 2994 9843 2976 9864 2973 9874
      2973 9881

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.UPDATED DISCUSSION #2...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE HILL COUNTRY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WILL MOVE INTO THE ESCARPMENT COUNTIES
SHORTLY. EXPECT STORMS TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THEY
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE PRODUCED AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
THUS THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN SECTIONS.

OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...A COOL RELATIVELY STABLE FLOW FROM THE
WEST AT MID LEVELS WILL OVERTAKE THE STALLED DRYLINE AND THIS
WILL HELP SHUTDOWN ANY ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND WET SURFACES.
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL EXIT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVE RAIN-FREE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION #1...
A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH FROM THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS WATCH HAS EXPIRED. ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST.

ONGOING ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY CONTINUES TO FEED
OFF OF THE REACH GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THEIR EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITS EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN EVENT CURRENTLY ON THE
DOWNTREND AS THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH INTO
CWFA CRP...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE IS SLOWING-UP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...WHERE SURFACED-BASED INSTABILITIES
ARE GREATEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FIRING. DECIDED TO
DROP THE TORNADO WATCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OUR THOSE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE THE 20Z CRAVEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE INDEX IS NEAR
70...A VALUE THAT WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS.

WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOG TONIGHT...GIVEN WET SURFACES...DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS FROM THE WEST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND BE SLOW TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH LOW-TO-NO POPS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP. A WARMING TREND TO
BEGIN MONDAY AS WELL...WITH MAX TEMPS LEVELING-OFF ON WED AND
HOLDING THROUGH FRIDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND
GIVEN THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH SHOW A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-091000-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
527 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH STORMS ENDING BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ185>187-189-191-193-203>209-220>225-082045-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-FAYETTE-
GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-LAVACA-MEDINA-REAL-
UVALDE-WILSON-
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...TORNADO WATCH 231 CANCELED FOR FOR REAL...UVALDE...BANDERA...
KERR...KENDALL...MEDINA...BEXAR...ATASCOSA...COMAL...HAYS...
GUADALUPE...CALDWELL...BASTROP...FAYETTE...LAVACA...GONZALES...
WILSON...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
COUNTIES LISTED ABOVE. THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO BECOME TORNADIC HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ171>173-185>194-206-208-209-090000-
BANDERA-BASTROP-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-HAYS-
KENDALL-KERR-LEE-LLANO-REAL-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...

A AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH OF BURNET TO
WEST OF LLANO WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND EAST TO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.

STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
846 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ173-186-189>194-206-208-090400-
BASTROP-BLANCO-CALDWELL-COMAL-HAYS-KENDALL-KERR-LEE-TRAVIS-
WILLIAMSON-
846 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE AUSTIN AREA...

A AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM GEORGETOWN TO JOHNSON
CITY TO NORTH OF COMFORT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND
AFFECT PARTS OF KERR...KENDALL...BLANCO...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...
HAYS...COMAL...BASTROP AND LEE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH...AND SOME HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 11 PM.