Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 070347
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
946 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2005

IAC049-070356-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-050307T0400Z/
DALLAS IA-
946 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DALLAS COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 944 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

AT 9:38 PM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL 1 MILE NORTH OF 
WAUKEE.

LAT...LON 4184 9428 4152 9423 4154 9383 4184 9384

$$

KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT-TERM INCLUDE THE CONTINUATION
OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE YET
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW OVER MN CURRENTLY HEADING SE
ACROSS WI IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. LITTLE OVERALL DIFF TDY WITH MODELS
LOCKING IN ON GENERAL TRENDS NEXT 24-36 HRS...THOUGH GFS STILL A BIT
FASTER AND NOT AS DEEP AS ETA. MIXED DOWN TDY WITH GUSTY WINDS ALL
AFTERNOON. INITIAL TROF HEADS INTO THE STATE PRIOR TO THE ARCTIC
FRONT BY 06Z.  WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVE HOURS
THEN PICK UP AGAIN AS FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD MORNING.
IN THE SHORT TERM MID-LVL INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF WITH CAPES 400-600 J/KG OVR THE SE QUARTER FROM
03Z-06Z TIME FRAME. LLVL MID-LVL MOISTURE NOT REALLY THERE BUT TD
HAS BEEN INCREASING FROM OK THRU CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES 45-50F. THOUGH MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING...ENOUGH
ELEVATED CAPE TO ADD CHANCE TSRA.  UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...SO ONLY
THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL...THOUGH THAT
APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM. AS ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES MON AM SFC TEMPS
STILL NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. MOISTURE LIMITED AS SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH WITH ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE -RW/-SW ON MONDAY. NEXT
CHALLENGE IS THE STRENGTH OF WIND ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING FRONT DECENT
SINKING MOTION WITH +2 TO 4 MICROBARS OMEGA MOVING OVER NC-SW LINE
BETWEEN 12-18Z. FEEL THIS IS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO HAVE WINDS
APPROACHING WIND ADV CRITERIA. FLY IN OINTMENT IS POSSIBLE INVERSION
DEVELOPING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ANY
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGH
BUILDS IN FOR MON NIGHT AND TUES BEFORE NEXT WARM FRONT...WK WAVE
COMBO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES TUES EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT. WED SHOWS A SLIGHT MODERATION AS
ANOTHER WAVE HEADS SOUTH OF THE STATE WED EVE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...THU THROUGH SUN...ACTIVE WNW FLOW CONTINUES IN
GENERALLY AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN. WITH SYSTEMS PASSING NEAR REGION
AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE HELD CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND INTRODUCED SOME PRECIP WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT/TIMING AS GFS IS NOW
TRACKING LOW FARTHER NORTH...AND NICE WARM-UP OVER THE WEEKEND IS
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE TREND HOLD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
612 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2005

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>049-057>060-070-071-071100-
ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
612 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA NORTHWEST OF A
ATLANTIC TO DES MOINES TO WATERLOO LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ050-061-062-072>075-081>086-092>097-071100-
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE-
612 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHEAST OF A
ATLANTIC TO DES MOINES TO WATERLOO LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 9 PM
AND 2 AM. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS TO
60 MPH AND NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER 3 AM AND WILL BRING NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. IF SEVERE WEATHER IS
OBSERVED, REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

DONAVON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
732 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     DOWNBURST        WEST BEND               42.96N 94.46W
03/06/2005                   PALO ALTO          IA   MESONET

            WEST BEND SCHOOL NETY OBSERVATION.

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
834 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             ROCKWELL CITY           42.40N 94.63W
03/06/2005  0.88 INCH        CALHOUN            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY CALHOUN COUNTY SHERRIFF OFFICE.

&&

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
852 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HAIL             GRAVITY                 40.76N 94.74W
03/06/2005  0.88 INCH        TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

RUSSELL