Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 031832
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

KSC051-031900-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-050703T1900Z/
ELLIS KS-
131 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

AT 129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR PFEIFER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 115 PM THE PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND
9 MILES WEST OF SCHOENCHEN.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3901 9957 3872 9957 3872 9905 3912 9905
      3912 9924

$$

&

FINCH

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 031856
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
155 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

KSC051-031905-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-050703T1900Z/
ELLIS KS-
155 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ELLIS COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 154 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3901 9957 3872 9957 3872 9905 3912 9905
      3912 9924

$$

FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG 200-250MB JET (60 TO 80KTS)
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS CAN BE SEEN AS WELL ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP.  ANOTHER UPPER JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  A
FAVORABLE COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE APPEARS EVIDENT, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASED DEEP TROPOSPHERIC UPWARD MOTION ON THE HIGH
PLAINS.

15Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED IMPRESSIVE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE OK-KS STATE BORDER.  AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS STILL SOMEWHAT APPARENT OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.  OUR LOCAL SHORT-FUSE COMPOSITE TOOL SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
AREA OF PERSISTENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTS AN INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT DRYLINE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK.  WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-UPPER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON, EXTREME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES MAXED OUT IN THE
4000-5000 J/KG RANGE.

FARTHER NORTH, THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MORNING WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST,
ALSO LEAVING OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER,
INITIALLY.  THE FIRST BEING IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM HUGOTON TO
SYRACUSE EAST TO ROUGHLY CIMARRON TO MEADE...IN THE AREA OF
MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION.
RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST ONE
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL, EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO 80 MPH, AND TORNADOES.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT FARTHER
NORTH.  STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN MORE OF A CLUSTERED MODE, WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, INITIALLY.  LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AS WELL
AS DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 80MPH, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL...INITIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING SOUTH AS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS, OVERTAKING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT WITH THIS FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING, MAINLY FROM 7PM TO MIDNIGHT.  THE 12KM
NAM HAS BEEN AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS.  THE 00Z/3 EXPERIMENTAL 4KM WRF ON THE WEB ALSO
SHOWS A COHERENT FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.

WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR A LITTLE MORE DETAILED WORDING, MENTIONING
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT TO 80 MPH,
AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

UMSCHEID

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-041000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1232 PM CDT (1132 AM MDT) SUN JUL 3 2005

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
WIDESPREAD REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TO
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WAKEENEY TO HAYS.  THESE STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER SOUTH FROM LAKIN TO HUGOTON EAST TO THE CIMARRON AND MEADE
AREAS.  THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
EXTREME INSTABILITY SUPPORT STRONG SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS,
INITIALLY, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 80 MPH.  AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

BY MID-EVENING, A LINE OF POTENTIALLY VERY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAINLY EAST OF
GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL.  SOME OF THE LARGER COMMUNITIES OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS VULNERABLE TO DANGEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
CIMARRON, MEADE, DODGE CITY, ASHLAND, JETMORE, LARNED, KINSLEY,
PRATT, AND MEDICINE LODGE.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION,
AS WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER
4PM CDT.

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
747 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-031800-
ELLIS-LANE-NESS-RUSH-SCOTT-TREGO-
747 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #587 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING KANSAS COUNTIES...

ELLIS...LANE...NESS...RUSH...SCOTT...AND TREGO.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

RITTERLING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
810 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HAIL             SCOTT STATE LAKE        38.68N 100.92W
07/03/2005  0.88 INCH        SCOTT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     HAIL             17 SSE COLLYER          38.81N 100.00W
07/03/2005  0.75 INCH        TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

0202 AM     HAIL             4 ESE PENDENNIS         38.63N 100.26W
07/03/2005  0.75 INCH        LANE               KS   PUBLIC

0210 AM     HAIL             4 SW UTICA              38.60N 100.22W
07/03/2005  0.75 INCH        NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             12 NNE ELLIS            39.10N 99.47W
07/02/2005  0.75 INCH        ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

1000 PM     HAIL             3 N HAYS                38.92N 99.32W
07/02/2005  0.75 INCH        ELLIS              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1250 AM     HAIL             17 SSE COLLYER          38.81N 100.00W
07/03/2005  0.75 INCH        TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

0202 AM     HAIL             4 ESE PENDENNIS         38.63N 100.26W
07/03/2005  0.75 INCH        LANE               KS   PUBLIC

0210 AM     HAIL             4 SW UTICA              38.60N 100.22W
07/03/2005  0.75 INCH        NESS               KS   PUBLIC

0339 AM     TSTM WND GST     LARNED                  38.18N 99.10W
07/03/2005  65 MPH           PAWNEE             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY KSNW WEATHER LAB

0740 AM     HAIL             SCOTT STATE LAKE        38.68N 100.92W
07/03/2005  0.88 INCH        SCOTT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             18 S WAKEENEY           38.76N 99.88W
07/03/2005  1.25 INCH        TREGO              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     HAIL             CEDAR BLUFF             38.78N 99.73W
07/03/2005  1.75 INCH        TREGO              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEE