Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 030911
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
411 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

KSC145-030921-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-050703T0930Z/
PAWNEE KS-
411 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PAWNEE COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 407 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED AND NO LONGER
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3801 9849 3802 9870 3801 9872 3801 9890
      3825 9890 3825 9849

$$

KSC185-030930-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-050703T0930Z/
STAFFORD KS-
411 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN STAFFORD
COUNTY UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 407 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF ST.
JOHN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE OR OTHER ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT WHILE
LIGHTNING IS IN THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3801 9849 3802 9870 3801 9872 3801 9890
      3825 9890 3825 9849

$$

RITTERLING

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 030927
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
427 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

KSC185-030937-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-050703T0930Z/
STAFFORD KS-
427 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...

AT 424 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3801 9849 3802 9870 3801 9872 3801 9890
      3825 9890 3825 9849

$$

RITTERLING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG 200-250MB JET (60 TO 80KTS)
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS CAN BE SEEN AS WELL ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP.  ANOTHER UPPER JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  A
FAVORABLE COUPLED JET STREAK STRUCTURE APPEARS EVIDENT, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASED DEEP TROPOSPHERIC UPWARD MOTION ON THE HIGH
PLAINS.

15Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED IMPRESSIVE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE OK-KS STATE BORDER.  AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS STILL SOMEWHAT APPARENT OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.  OUR LOCAL SHORT-FUSE COMPOSITE TOOL SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
AREA OF PERSISTENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTS AN INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT DRYLINE...JUST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK.  WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-UPPER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON, EXTREME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES MAXED OUT IN THE
4000-5000 J/KG RANGE.

FARTHER NORTH, THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MORNING WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST,
ALSO LEAVING OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER,
INITIALLY.  THE FIRST BEING IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM HUGOTON TO
SYRACUSE EAST TO ROUGHLY CIMARRON TO MEADE...IN THE AREA OF
MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION.
RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST ONE
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL, EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS TO 80 MPH, AND TORNADOES.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT FARTHER
NORTH.  STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN MORE OF A CLUSTERED MODE, WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, INITIALLY.  LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AS WELL
AS DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 80MPH, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL...INITIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING SOUTH AS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS, OVERTAKING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT WITH THIS FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING, MAINLY FROM 7PM TO MIDNIGHT.  THE 12KM
NAM HAS BEEN AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS.  THE 00Z/3 EXPERIMENTAL 4KM WRF ON THE WEB ALSO
SHOWS A COHERENT FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.

WILL UPDATE THE HWO FOR A LITTLE MORE DETAILED WORDING, MENTIONING
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT TO 80 MPH,
AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

UMSCHEID

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) SAT JUL 2 2005

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE TODAY, WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID LEVELS AND A LACK OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY TONIGHT.  IF ANY
STORMS DO OCCUR IN THE AREA, HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  EXACT TIMING AND NATURE OF THE
STORMS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A JOHNSON TO
GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE.

RITTERLING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1024 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             3 N HAYS                38.92N 99.32W
07/02/2005  0.75 INCH        ELLIS              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KRUSE