Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
800 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

EVENING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM IDAHO
HAS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. MAIN HAZARD HAS BEEN
HAIL...BUT WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING PROLONGED IN SOME PLACES THERE
ARE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL. NO ZONE UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME...BUT ANTICIPATE TAKING DOWN THE WATCH (AT LEAST IN THE WEST)
LATER THIS EVENING AS THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS GREATER
LIFT SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA FOR THURSDAY AS THE FLOW DRIES OUT. WEAK WAVES MOVE
ACROSS INTO THE WEST. AIRMASS DRIES OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. FRIDAY REMAINS IN A ZONAL
FLOW...BUT A STRONGER WAVE INVADES...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE
WEST. MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS WANTING TO
MOVE A RIDGE IN AND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AT THE MOMENT...AS
PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST...AND DONT SEE ANYTHING COMING TO PROMOTE THE CHANGES THE
GFS IS ADVERTISING. HUMPHREY

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z...AND THROUGH 08Z EAST OF A JDN TO SHR LINE.
SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM...WITH
LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/078 057/074 052/082 054/084 057/082 055/079 057/082
    64/T    42/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T    20/B
LVM 046/071 047/073 049/078 051/082 051/080 050/077 052/080
    53/T    42/T    20/B    00/B    02/T    22/T    20/B
HDN 056/080 055/073 052/084 055/086 057/083 056/083 058/086
    44/T    42/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T    21/B
MLS 061/084 057/073 055/083 057/088 056/086 056/084 057/087
    53/T    52/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T    22/T
4BQ 060/084 057/073 053/083 055/088 057/086 055/084 058/087
    33/T    42/T    00/B    00/U    02/T    02/T    22/T
BHK 058/083 054/071 053/078 056/084 054/082 054/079 055/082
    53/T    42/T    00/B    00/B    02/T    02/T    22/T
SHR 052/085 052/076 049/079 052/083 054/082 052/081 055/084
    33/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T    20/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>32-34>36-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1004 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

MTZ030>032-036-058-290415-
TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-POWDER RIVER-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-
1004 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ033-037-290415-
FALLON-CARTER-
1004 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ028-029-034-035-038>042-056-057-063>068-WYZ098-099-290415-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-LIVINGSTON AREA-
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-CRAZY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
1004 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO
BILLINGS AND HARDIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JKL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE ROUNDUP           46.35N 108.39W
06/27/2005  60 MPH           MUSSELSHELL        MT   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
920 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             15 N POMPEYS PILLAR     46.22N 107.95W
06/27/2005  0.75 INCH        YELLOWSTONE        MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
939 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

MTZ028-029-034-035-038>042-056-057-063>068-280445-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-NORTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS-BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-GOLDEN VALLEY-JUDITH GAP-
MUSSELSHELL-NORTHERN PARK-PARADISE VALLEY-LIVINGSTON AREA-
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN STILLWATER-
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN SWEET
GRASS-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-CRAZY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-JUDITH GAP-CRAZY MOUNTAINS-YELLOWSTONE-
939 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 539 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MONTANA THIS CANCELS 9 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MONTANA

GOLDEN VALLEY         MUSSELSHELL           WHEATLAND

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA

BIG HORN              CARBON                PARK
STILLWATER            SWEET GRASS           YELLOWSTONE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ABSAROKEE...BIG TIMBER...BILLINGS...
BRIDGER...COLUMBUS...CROW AGENCY...HARDIN...HARLOWTON...JOLIET...
LAVINA...LIVINGSTON...RED LODGE...ROUNDUP AND RYEGATE.

MTZ030>032-036-058-280600-
CUSTER-POWDER RIVER-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-TREASURE-
939 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 539 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 12 AM
MDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MONTANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA

CUSTER                POWDER RIVER          ROSEBUD
TREASURE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BROADUS...COLSTRIP...FORSYTH...
HYSHAM...LAME DEER AND MILES CITY.