Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
446 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

UPDATE FOR WATCH 539 THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE. EXTENDED MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST TO ACCOMODATE WATCH AS SHEAR PROFILE QUITE GOOD TO
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.

STRONG S/W MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER DYNAMICS
...GOOD MOISTURE AND VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL MAKE UP FOR LOWER
CAPE VALUES THAN LAST FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED
OVER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING
THAN LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO WEAKER 700MB FLOW. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT TO CENTRAL AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS S/W AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE AREA DRIFTS ACROSS AREA. WILL LINGER POPS INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN NORTHEAST ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER JET OVER AREA WITH SURFACE LOW SETTING UP
OVER NE WYOMING/NW SOUTH DAKOTA BY AFTERNOON. MORE DYNAMICS CROSS
ENTIRE REGION AS TROF MOVES OVER. CAPE VALUES AND WIND PROFILE
FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER IN FAR EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TROF AXIS LINGERS OVER AREA
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TESAR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA FOR THURSDAY AS THE FLOW DRIES OUT. WEAK WAVES MOVE
ACROSS INTO THE WEST. AIRMASS DRIES OUT...SO WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. FRIDAY REMAINS IN A ZONAL
FLOW...BUT A STRONGER WAVE INVADES...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE
WEST. MODELS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS WANTING TO
MOVE A RIDGE IN AND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AT THE MOMENT...AS
PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
WEST...AND DONT SEE ANYTHING COMING TO PROMOTE THE CHANGES THE
GFS IS ADVERTISING. HUMPHREY

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE HEAVY RAIN ALONG
WITH SOME HAIL. THE STORMS WILL BE LATER TO GET INTO THE EAST.
THE STORMS WILL CLEAR THE WEST BY AROUND 04Z AND THE EAST BY 08Z.
HUMPHREY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 057/078 057/074 052/082 054/084 057/082 055/079
    3/T 64/T    42/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T
LVM 068 046/071 047/073 049/078 051/082 051/080 050/077
    7/T 53/T    42/T    20/B    00/B    02/T    22/T
HDN 082 056/080 055/073 052/084 055/086 057/083 056/083
    3/T 44/T    42/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T
MLS 080 061/084 057/073 055/083 057/088 056/086 056/084
    3/T 53/T    52/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T
4BQ 085 060/084 057/073 053/083 055/088 057/086 055/084
    2/T 33/T    42/T    00/B    00/U    02/T    02/T
BHK 080 058/083 054/071 053/078 056/084 054/082 054/079
    2/T 53/T    42/T    00/B    00/B    02/T    02/T
SHR 081 052/085 052/076 049/079 052/083 054/082 052/081
    2/T 33/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    02/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>32-34>36-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
454 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

MTZ028>032-034>036-038>042-056>058-063>068-282300-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-SOUTHERN BIG HORN-
EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-
RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-
PARADISE VALLEY-LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-CRAZY MOUNTAINS-
454 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT MDT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. PLEASE SEE GTFWCNBYZ AND GTFZFPBYZ FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ033-037-282300-
FALLON-CARTER-
454 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WYZ098-099-282300-
NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
454 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
507 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             HARLOWTON               46.44N 109.83W
06/27/2005  0.88 INCH        WHEATLAND          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SJC

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