Lake Effect Snow Warning 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 161502
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL FALL IN AREAS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE 1 TO 4
INCHES.

MEANWHILE THE SECOND PUNCH OF WINTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS
COLDER AIR CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING OFF LAKE
ERIE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND ACROSS NIAGARA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTIES...JUST NORTH OF THE METRO BUFFALO AND THE NORTHERN
SUBURBS. THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
METRO BUFFALO AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHTOWNS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND THE
WATERTOWN AREA AND THEN SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
ON SATURDAY.

NYZ003>005-013-014-161615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051216T1700Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

NYZ001-002-162315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0006.051216T1700Z-051217T0100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BAND WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ010>012-019-085-162315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.051216T1800Z-051218T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING BUFFALO METRO AND THE NORTHERN
SUBURBS. IT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. SNOW COULD FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR.

THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ACROSS SKI COUNTRY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY...HOWEVER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS PERSIST LOCALLY AS MUCH AS A FOOT AND A HALF
IS POSSIBLE. 

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ020-162315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.051217T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OLEAN
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. 

LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
BUFFALO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LAKE BAND WILL SETTLE INTO
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ021-161615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1700Z/
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

$$

NYZ007-008-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.051217T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
THESE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TOP OF EARLIER SNOW AND
ICING CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SNOW AND ICE
COVERED...VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION TODAY AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SET UP NARROW
BANDS OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE WATERTOWN AREA.

THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.051217T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO. HOWEVER THIS ADDITIONAL SNOW ON TOP OF EARLIER SNOW AND
ICING CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SNOW AND ICE
COVERED...VERY SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION TODAY AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SET UP NARROW
BANDS OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE LAKE BAND
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MAY REACH OSWEGO COUNTY
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 161602
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FALL IN AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO
FORM OVER LAKE ONTARIO BEGINNING TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE SNOW AND ICE WHICH PLAGUED WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HOWEVER A SECOND PUNCH OF WINTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS COLDER
AIR CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE
WILL INITIALLY EXTEND ACROSS NIAGARA AND EXTREME NORTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES...JUST NORTH OF THE METRO BUFFALO AND THE NORTHERN
SUBURBS. THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
METRO BUFFALO AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHTOWNS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND THE
WATERTOWN AREA AND THEN SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
ON SATURDAY.

NYZ007-008-170015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.051217T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1102 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SET UP NARROW
BANDS OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE WATERTOWN AREA.

THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-170015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.051217T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1102 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SET UP NARROW
BANDS OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE LAKE BAND
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MAY REACH OSWEGO COUNTY
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ001-002-170015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.051216T1700Z-051217T0100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA
1102 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BAND WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ010>012-019-085-170015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.051216T1800Z-051218T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1102 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING BUFFALO METRO AND THE NORTHERN
SUBURBS. IT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. SNOW COULD FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ACROSS SKI COUNTRY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY...HOWEVER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS PERSIST LOCALLY AS MUCH AS A FOOT AND A HALF
IS POSSIBLE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ020-170015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.051217T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OLEAN
1102 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. 

LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
BUFFALO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LAKE BAND WILL SETTLE INTO
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 162103
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO CIRCULATE INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS GENERATED BY THE COLD
AIR BLOWING ACROSS THE LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...AND THIS
WILL MAKE DRIVING EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AS SNOW PLOWS ATTEMPT TO
KEEP UP WITH THE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS.

THE SNOW BANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
THEY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

THE SNOW WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY SATURDAY EVENING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND SUNDAY MORNING TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

NYZ001-002-170100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051217T0100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA
403 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

BURSTS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVIER BANDS WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES GENERALLY FROM NIAGARA
FALLS AND LOCKPORT SOUTH.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ010>012-019-085-170515-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
403 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

BURSTS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME MORE CONTINUOUS EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SNOW BAND BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE BUFFALO
METRO AND NORTHERN SUBURBS EAST INTO GENESEE COUNTY. SNOW COULD
FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EVENTUALLY SETTLING
ACROSS SKI COUNTRY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY...HOWEVER WHERE THE
HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS PERSIST LOCALLY AS MUCH AS A FOOT AND A HALF
IS POSSIBLE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-170515-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.051217T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
403 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND OVERNIGHT ACROSS JEFFERSON AND
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING WATERTOWN.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY SUNDAY MORNING.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ020-170515-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.051217T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OLEAN
403 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY. 

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FORMING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SETTLE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. 

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY
IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-170515-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.051217T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
403 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SET UP NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MAY REACH OSWEGO COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 170140
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
840 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COLD ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE NOT BECOME AS ORGANIZED
AS EARLIER THOUGHT BUT WE STILL EXPECT SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW
AMOUNTS.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS
WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. 

THE SNOW BANDS WILL MEANDER A BIT TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL DRIFT
SOUTH SLOWLY EARLY SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY.

THE SNOW WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY SATURDAY EVENING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND SUNDAY MORNING TO THE LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

NYZ010>012-019-085-170945-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
840 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

BURSTS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT A
WELL ORGANIZED BAND HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS OF YET. WE STILL EXPECT
ACCUMULATION RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MORE OVER THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOWS.

THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
THEN MIGRATE SOUTHWARD SLOWLY SATURDAY.

SNOWFALL TOTALS BY SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN A
FOOT IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TOWNS SOUTHWARD
INTO SKI COUNTRY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-170945-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
840 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
WATERTOWN.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY...
EVENTUALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ020-170945-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OLEAN
840 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-170945-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
840 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. 

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SET UP NARROW BANDS OF
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE BANDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY TONIGHT WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD
DRIFT SATURDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

SAGE

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 170915
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO CIRCULATE COLD ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH
PER HOUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SNOW
BANDS WILL MEANDER A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY 
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

THE SNOW WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY SATURDAY EVENING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND SUNDAY MORNING TO THE LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

NYZ010>012-019-085-171715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
415 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS...AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS LIKELY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-171715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
415 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE WATERTOWN AREA THIS MORNING.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. THESE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BRING LOCALIZED
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-171715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
415 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ020-171715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OLEAN
415 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 171516
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1016 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE BUT WILL BE
WEAKER EAST OF LAKE ERIE...

.A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE SO ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR
LEWIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONTINUING FOR OSWEGO COUNTY. THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. 

REMEMBER IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY.
IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS BE
PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM.



NYZ010>012-019-085-171630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1016 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ONLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY
WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ020-171630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051218T0600Z/
CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OLEAN
1016 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. ONLY AN INCH OR SO IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. 

$$

NYZ007-008-172330-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1016 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-172330-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1016 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE
POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

JJP

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 172047
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO BUT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...

.A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR
LEWIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONTINUING FOR OSWEGO COUNTY. THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...THERE MAY BE AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN THE TOWN OF ADAMS AND
LOWVILLE WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
OSWEGO COUNTY.

REMEMBER IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY.
IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS BE
PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM.

NYZ007-008-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
347 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOWS...MAINLY ALONG ROUTE 177 BETWEEN ADAMS CENTER AND LOWVILLE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
347 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY.

ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT 
IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL CREATE POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 172147
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
447 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

NYZ007-008-172300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
447 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ006-172300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051218T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
447 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...

THE SYNOPTIC EVENT THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND EARLY LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO WIND
DOWN WITH SOME SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. OUR WEATHER REGIME WILL THEN
SWITCH FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE AS A DEEP WELL ALIGNED 240 FLOW
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...FIRST ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TODAY THEN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TOWARDS THIS
EVENING. WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FOR LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY.

LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN COMMON TO THE EAST OF BOTH LKS ERIE AND
ONTARIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE RELATIVBELY COLD BUT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER A BREAK DOWN OF THE CURRENT +PNA PATTERN WILL
LEAD TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A DEEP...WELL STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
CIRCULATE A PAIR OF VORT LOBES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE FIRST
LOBE WILL BE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAKENING JET DYNAMICS...AND THAT IS
THE BASIC FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS MORNINGS LEFTOVER SNOWFALL.
THIS SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...BUT NOT BEFORE MOST AREAS PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE STEADY SNOW WILL
END BY MID MORNING WHILE SITES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL EXPERIENCE
FAIRLY STEADY SNOW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED...THE SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT AS
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WHILE LAKE DELTA TS WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY...A PRIMED AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW
THE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY. A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LAKE
BAND WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA...BASICALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SUBURBS INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND...
THE TONAWANDAS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NIAGARA AND ORLEANS
COUNTIES. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE EVENING APPROACHES...THE WELL ALIGNED 240 FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE
THE BAND TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE. THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH DEEP LIFT
THROUGH THE BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION TO PRODUCE SNOW AT A
RATE OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR. THE BAND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHTOWNS BY MORNING. THE ETA12 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SOLUTION...WHILE BUFKIT HOURLY PROFILES SEEM TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.

THE LAKE ERIE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHTOWNS OF
ERIE COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SKI COUNTRY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER THE CAP DURING THIS PERIOD AND
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LESS IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 8 TO 16 INCHES FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY WITH 6 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY LAKE SHORE...AND GENESEE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A SIMILAR 240 FLOW WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER
TO BECOME WELL ENOUGH ALIGNED TO SUPPORT LAKE ACTIVITY. LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LAKE SNOWS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE HEART OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY (NORTH OF THE TUG) OVERNIGHT.

LIKE THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...THE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT A
BIT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL ON SATURDAY. CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS NOT VERY GOOD THOUGH...AS SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT ACTIVITY WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT WILL GO WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES DURING THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY PERIOD...BUT SIGIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE ACTIVITY HOLDS ITS GROUND IN THE WATERTOWN
AREA.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF BOTH LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...
BUT SHOULD BE MORE IMPRESSIVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A HIGHER
CAP AND A LONGER FETCH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WINDS ARE LINED UP. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND BACKS WINDS ENOUGH FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE LAKES
SNOWS.  COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE LAKE
SNOWS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FAVOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE WIND
DIRECTIONS AND TIMING OF UPPER SHORT WAVES, WE HAVE KEPT POPS TO 40%.

&&

.AVIATION...

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL KEEP A THREAT OF CLEAR ICING THROUGH
THE 12Z EAST OF ROCHESTER. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR
AND OCCASIONAL LOWER TO IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE WEST OF ROCHESTER...AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. LAKE SNOWS WILL DEVELOP FOR KBUF AND
KIAG AFT 17Z WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT
KBUF.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING
         NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
         NYZ010>012-019-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT NYZ020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT NYZ006.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM BUFFALO TO
         RIPLEY ALONG LAKE ERIE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...TMA