Lake Effect Snow Advisory 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OUR DRASTIC CHANGE FROM RECORD WARMTH TO WINTER COLD IS UNDERWAY AS
COLD AIR HAS BEGUN TO SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN WAKE
OF THE POWERFUL STORM WHICH PASSES ACROSS UPPER LAKES INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC. LAST OF RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR ERN LK ONT COUNTIES BEFORE
00Z SO WILL FOCUS OUR ATTENTION ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.

PARAMETERS ALL LOOK A LITTLE BETTER FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. MODEL 850-925 MB TEMPS SEEM ONE TO TWO
DEG COLDER WITH EACH RUN...AND NOTE SUBFREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS AND
SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS CNTRL OHIO...DROPS OF 40 DEGREES IN 24
HOURS SOME LIMITED LK EFFECT HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER LK
ERIE...BUT IT IS SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE SO FAR.

FOLLOWED MESOSCALE ETA12 MODEL CLOSELY FOR FIRST 36 HRS OF
FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS ERIE BAND CONSOLIDATING ON A 245-250 FLOW
OVER METRO BUF THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 250-260
MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE TROF SHOVES IT SOUTH TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY. MODEL QPF IN 0.5 INCH RANGE MAX...AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. AM QUITE CONCERNED WITH WARMTH OF LAKE AND ROBUST START
OF ACTIVITY ALREADY...ONLY QUESTION WILL BE TIMING ON CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW. ALL LK EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE EXCELLENT...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY HIGH EQUIL LEVEL/INVERSION (10K FT)...LITTLE
OR NO SHEAR...GOOD VERTICAL VELOCITY AND SNOW GROWTH BY LATER
TONIGHT. SO..WE MAY BE IN FOR QUITE AN EVENT...AND HERE IS OUR BEST
ESTIMATE ON HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT OFF LK ERIE...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A SINGLE BAND BY EARLY
EVENING OVER METRO BUF AND ON INTO GEN/ORL COS...RAIN AT FIRST...BUT
CHANGING TO GRAUPEL AND THEN SNOW BY MID EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. BAND SHOULD EDGE SOUTH A BIT INTO BUF
SOUTHTOWNS AND WRN WYO COUNTY...ALSO HUGGING CHAUT CO LAKESHORE. IT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND THEN EDGE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THURS MORNING BEFORE EVOLVING INTO MULT BANDS ON WNW FLOW IN
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 6-12 INCHES IN MOST
PERSISTENT BAND...AND THIS CAN OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM DUNKIRK TO COLDEN
TO ORCHD PARK. BUF METRO A VERY TOUGH CALL...LITTLE OR NONE NORTH OF
DOWNTOWN TO AIRPORT BUT AMTS COULD INCR FAST JUST TO SOUTH. FOR
NOW...WILL HOIST WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COS FOR 3-6
TONIGHT AND 3-6 THURS...ADVIS FOR NRN ERIE/GENESEE (INCL IMMED BUF)
FOR 2-4...ALTHOUGH FOCUS ON S AND E OF BUF. ALSO WILL SEE WRNG
CRITERIA EDGING INTO N CHAUT AND NW CATT COS THURS MORNING. LESS
ACCUM TO SOUTH LATER ON.

NOW...OVER ON OUR OTHER LAKE...IT SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT FOR ANYTHING TO FALL AS LIQUID...UNTIL AFT 06-08Z OR SO.
BY THEN WE WILL HAVE SOME LK EFFECT OVER JEFF COUNTY...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY GET GOING ON THURS
OVER SRN JEFF/LEWIS AND SETTLE SOUTH DURING DAY AS WINDS
VEER...EVENTUALLY WINDING UP OVER OSW COUNTY LATER IN DAY. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WATCH FOR THE 3 COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM THURS
AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS ISSUE APPROPRIATE FLAGS.

RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE IN THURS NT...BUT WITH 850S DOWN TO -14C IT
WILL BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF SEASON BY FAR (& BUFS FIRST
FREEZE)...AND LK EFF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SE OF LAKES...WILL PLAY
LIKELY POPS FOR NOW WITH A FEW INCHES IN GRIDS IN THOSE AREAS...CHC
ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY IN MOST PLACES...WINDS WILL BACK
QUICKLY BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LES BUF/IAG/ART AS THE
WINDS SWING FROM WEST TO SOUTH.

MILDER SW FLOW SATURDAY...TOO MILD FOR LK EFFECT...DRY AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

FOLLOWED HPC GRAPHICS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TWO TROFS/FRONTS TO
AFFECT OUR REGION. ONE WEAK ONE LATER SUNDAY...WELL KEEP LOWER CHC
POPS IN THEN...RAIN TO SNOW...THEN A RIDGE MONDAY...DRY...THEN MORE
POTENT SYSTEM TUES WITH CHC RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR WED...WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -20C IT SURE
LOOKS LIKE A COLD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF ERIE AND...LATER TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL AFFECT DOWNWIND AREAS WITH SNOW SQUALLS WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS.  THE ERIE BAND WILL JUST CLIP KBUF...WHICH WILL BE AT
THE NORTHERN EXTREME OF THE LAKE ERIE EVENT EARLY THIS EVENING.
KJHW WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END...AND GET CLIPPED LATE TONIGHT.
KART WILL BE UNDER THE ONTARIO BAND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REMAINING AREAS OF WESTERN NY WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING SLOWLY CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER TEMPO CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL DOWNGRADE WINDS FROM GALES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER 35 KNOTS AND WAVES HEIGHTS LOWERING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER TO WESTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BUF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING 10 PM TONIGHT TO 1 PM THURS
       NYZ012-019-020-085.
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY 9 PM TONIGHT TO 4 AM THURS
       NYZ010-011.
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH 6AM TO 6 PM THURS NYZ006>008
.MARINE...GALES LK ONTARIO THROUGH 4 PM THURS.
       SMALL CRAFTS ALL NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES THROUGH 4 PM THURS.

SHORT/LONG TERM...MCLAUGHLIN
AVIATION/MARINE...ZAFF
WARNINGS...APB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
558 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

NYZ001>003-010-011-171100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
558 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

THESE WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT... WHEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL DROP BELOW 40 MPH.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-171100-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
558 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

THESE WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT... WHEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL DROP BELOW 40 MPH.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
MORNING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-013-014-021-171100-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
558 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

THESE WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT... WHEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL DROP BELOW 40 MPH.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-171100-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
558 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

THESE WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT... WHEN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL DROP BELOW 40 MPH.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE
THIS MORNING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

SEVERAL INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY...AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
THE TUG HILL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TUG HILL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-171100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
558 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT ON LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NEARSHORES OF LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ON THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NEARSHORES
OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON THE NEARSHORES OF
LAKE ERIE THURSDAY AND ON THE NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TMA