Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
319 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT RADAR IS INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
OVER THE PLAINS...A FEW CUMULUS FIELDS ARE INDICATED ON SATELLITE
PICTURES BUT THATS ABOUT IT.  LAPS DATA SHOWS THE CIN IS GONE IN
MANY AREAS.  CAPES ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 2000 JOULES/KG OVER MOST OF
THE PLAINS.  THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOW SOME MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH SOME 40S DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
PALMER RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  FROM
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO NOW...THERE IS SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE ON THE RADAR BUT THE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER TODAY.
WILL KEEP 20% GOING FOR THE PLAINS WITH THE CAPE AND BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY WELL BY 06Z TONIGHT.  FOR
SATURDAY...THE THETA-E AXIS IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAYS.  THE
MOISTURE ON THE CROSS SECTIONS IS LESS THAN IT IS NOW AS WELL.
CAPES ARE LOWER AS WELL.  WILL GO 20%S IN THE HIGHER AREAS...10%S
ON THE PLAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW SATURDAY 0.5-1.5 C
WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
COME INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.  THE COOLING SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
THE WARM START WE GET...BUT THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP STORM CHANCES
LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E AXIS BACK ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.  WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING WHEN STORMS MAY TRY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE TOO AS 0-6 KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 20 M/S AND CAPES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500
J/KG.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH MODELS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S.  GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE OF
MODELS OVERDOING THE COOLING IN THESE EVENTS...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S FOR NOW.  IN ANY CASE...A NICE BREAK FROM THE 90S.

THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THOUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  ONLY ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS BY THEN AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT AGAIN.  AT THIS POINT...WE CAN ONLY HOPE OF HURRICANE EMILY
REMNANTS GETTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO AID THE START OF THE MONSOON.

&&

.BOU...NONE.

&&

KOOPMEINERS/BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

COZ030>051-161200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

IT APPEARS THAT FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL STAY
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  LIKE
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE MAINTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 12:30 PM.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE PLAINS
BY 2 PM.  FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND ALSO BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH
JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
115 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             2 NE ESTES PARK         40.39N 105.49W
07/15/2005  1.00 INCH        LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
335 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             3 N AURORA              39.75N 104.82W
07/15/2005  0.75 INCH        ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
344 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             3 N AURORA              39.75N 104.82W
07/15/2005  0.75 INCH        ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0336 PM     HAIL             1 SSW AURORA            39.69N 104.82W
07/15/2005  0.75 INCH        ARAPAHOE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
403 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             1 N AURORA              39.70N 104.80W
07/15/2005  1.00 INCH        ARAPAHOE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0336 PM     HAIL             1 SSW AURORA            39.69N 104.82W
07/15/2005  0.75 INCH        ARAPAHOE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0328 PM     HAIL             3 N AURORA              39.75N 104.82W
07/15/2005  0.75 INCH        ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM     HAIL             CASTLE ROCK             39.38N 104.85W
07/15/2005  0.88 INCH        DOUGLAS            CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
414 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     HAIL             S AURORA                39.70N 104.81W
07/15/2005  1.75 INCH        ARAPAHOE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMOKEY HILL ROAD AND C-470.

0348 PM     HAIL             1 N AURORA              39.70N 104.80W
07/15/2005  1.00 INCH        ARAPAHOE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0336 PM     HAIL             1 SSW AURORA            39.69N 104.82W
07/15/2005  0.75 INCH        ARAPAHOE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0328 PM     HAIL             3 N AURORA              39.75N 104.82W
07/15/2005  0.75 INCH        ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM     HAIL             CASTLE ROCK             39.38N 104.85W
07/15/2005  0.88 INCH        DOUGLAS            CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CLB