Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
225 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...TDA-TNGT...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG WITH NWLY FLO ALF
ACRS CNTRL RCKYS THRU PRD.  THIS MEANS CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF
THE ERN FTHLLS OVR THE PLAINS TDA.  CAPES FM FCST UPR AIR SNDNGS
RANGE UP TO 1000J/KG IN THE MTNS AND TO NRLY 2000J/KG OVR THE
URBAN CORRIDOR.  CAPES ARE NRLY AS HIGH ON THE PLAINS BUT THE
MID LVL CAP PERSISTS.  WHILE CIN VALUES ARE LWR THAN YESTERDAY
THIS WILL DELAY CONVECTION THERE UNTIL EVE WHEN CIN VALUES DCRS.
LO LVL SELY RETURN FLO MAY PRODUCE A DEN MESOCYCLONE AND INCRS
SFC DWPTS ACRS PLAINS THIS AFTN AND EVE.  FRZG LVLS WILL BE A LTL
LWR DUE TO WK COOLING ALF AND ADEQUATE SHEAR EXISTS FOR PSBL SVR
TSTMS PRODUCING LRG HAIL.  TEMPS WILL BE A SMIDGEN COOLER AS CLDS
WILL SPRD OFF THE MTNS EARLIER.  WILL GENLY COMPROMISE AMONGST
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...ONCE AGAIN...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES NECESSARY THIS TIME
AROUND.  VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  ONE COULD ARGUE THAT 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF
+16C TO +20C WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAP AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY.  BUT
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE BEEN SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES ALMOST THAT WARM.
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING UNDERNEATH THE DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CHANCES ARE THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS WILL POP
UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY.  ON THE PLAINS...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL BE QUITE COMMON...BUT
WILL LEAVE IT TO LATER FORECASTERS TO FORECAST ANY TRIPLE DIGIT
NUMBERS.

THE FORECASTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN
LEFT AS THEY ARE.  MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING A FRONTAL SURGE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY SHOULD ADVECT SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND THE AFTERNOON SHEAR PROFILE
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.  BESIDES A
HIGHER THREAT OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE OTHER FEATURE IS
GOING TO BE A SHORT-LIVED BREAK FROM 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.

WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE RE-BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.BOU...NONE.

&&

GARD/KDRBY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

COZ030>051-161200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1052 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

IT APPEARS THAT FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL STAY
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  LIKE
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE MAINTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 12:30 PM.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE PLAINS
BY 2 PM.  FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 4 PM.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND ALSO BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH
JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
115 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             2 NE ESTES PARK         40.39N 105.49W
07/15/2005  1.00 INCH        LARIMER            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAY