Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

TOUGH FORECAST AHEAD FOR TONIGHT AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER GOES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS
COVERAGE GOES...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE JET LOCATION AS THIS
FEATURE DETERMINES WHERE ENHANCED AREAS OF LIFT OCCURS.
ALSO...SKIES ARE BECOMING CLEAR OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI AND THE SUN IS QUICKLY WARMING THINGS UP. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THAT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SOME
MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY POPPING UP OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS WHICH COULD BE AN
INDICATION OF THINGS TO COME THIS EVENING. WE ASK THE PUBLIC TO
REMAIN ALERT AND STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR WATCH YOUR LOCAL TV STATION.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO
70. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT (LOWER TO MID 40S)
BUT WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON THURSDAY.

A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND THEN WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY WHICH IT COULD HELP DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THOSE OF YOU MAKING PLANS FOR THE
WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE AIR AS MODELS COULD
SLOW OR SPEED THINGS UP AND THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME GOOD
DYNAMICS FOR THIS SYSTEM. SO THIS IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
OUR EYES ON. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  62  41  71 /  60  10   0   0
ANNISTON    52  63  41  71 /  60  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  52  63  41  71 /  60  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  63  42  72 /  50  10   0   0
CALERA      52  64  42  72 /  60  10   0   0
AUBURN      55  68  45  74 /  60  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  54  69  43  75 /  60  10   0   0
TROY        54  70  44  76 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

10/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-230500-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
500 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(TONIGHT).

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT.  ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING OVER MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE EAST AND FURTHER DEVELOP INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
TOWARD SUNSET.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN ALABAMA BY 3 AM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY).

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING...AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
FROM MISSISSIPPI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-230400-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
642 PM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING HAS STOPPED...UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST.  THE STORMS WILL
REACH AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AFTER 9 PM CST...BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND 1 OR 2 AM CST.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR OTHER
FAMILIAR SOURCES OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WATCHES...
WARNINGS...AND FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED.

MBS/91