Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED THE AIRMASS OVER THE PANHANDLES TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE USUAL TSTMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 612 HAS ALREADY BEEN POSTED. HEAVY
RAIN...WIND AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. MEANWHILE...
DECENT CU/TCU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER OLDHAM...DEAF SMITH...POTTER
AND RANDALL COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATER
PERIODS EXCEPT TO ADD POPS TO THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE WESTERN
ZONES ARE FAVORED AGAIN BASED ON PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
TSTM INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TO SEE HOW
THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS PLAY OUT. WE MAY SEE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS SO INHERITED DRY FORECAST
STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE.

SLATTERY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

13/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
313 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-071100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
313 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO AMARILLO TEXAS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
814 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             12 W DUMAS              35.86N 102.18W
07/06/2005  1.00 INCH        HARTLEY            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS ERMPLOYEE REPORTED QUARTER HAIL AND A FEW
            FUNNEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE LIFTED AND ARE NO LONGER VISIBLE.
            BUT STORM IS ROTATING.

&&

JJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
822 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             15 W DUMAS              35.86N 102.23W
07/06/2005  1.50 INCH        HARTLEY            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JJB