Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
537 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OUR FIRST
REALLY STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR THUS FAR IN THE EARLY FALL SEASON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IS WHERE THE PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AND WITH FROPA OCCURRING ACROSS BULK OF FA LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN
FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE THUS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 65 KNOTS UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH EXISTS AROUND 4 KFT THIS MORNING. INVERSION WILL BREAK AS
FRONT APPROACHES AND 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MIX AT
LEAST A PORTION OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE MAINLY DURING MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AS FRONT ADVANCES AT ABOUT 50 MPH. HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS WHERE CHANNELED FLOW WILL
OCCUR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST DAMAGE. EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE THREAT. WINDS
WILL DECREASE BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT WEST AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

WILL NEXT TURN ATTENTION TO FROST/FREEZE AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES
CLEAR. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON IN THAT REGION
AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR
MID 30S IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING AREAS WEST...NORTH AND EAST OF
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HAVE DONE LITTLE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS PERIOD OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY
ADJUST TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND ADD MENTION OF FROST TO SOME AREAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WARMING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...LOCALLY IFR...AS THE MORNING
PROGRESS AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AND LIGHT WINDS IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE INVERSION AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY KEEPING VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT NOW...HOWEVER AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES INTO AREA THE RAIN WILL PULL STRONGER WINDS TO
SURFACE SO HAVE GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN TAFS FOR A THREE HOUR PERIOD LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT AROUND W-WNW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN. GUSTY WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN QUICKLY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH TODAY EXPECTED TO BE 60 TO 70 PERCENT
WITH MAXIMUM RH TONIGHT 85 TO 100 PERCENT AND MINIMUM RH ON FRIDAY
35 TO 45 PERCENT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DUMP UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN A 2 TO 3 HOURS PERIOD AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 40 MPH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
SOME WIND GUSTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH 65 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS REMAIN LOW AND RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF STORM DRAINS
BECOME CLOGGED WITH FALLEN LEAVES. RAINFALL WILL LAST ONLY 2 TO 3
HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A THIRD OF AN INCH AND
AN INCH. DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD BY EVENING AND WILL LINGER INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT CTZ001-013.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT MAZ001-025. FROST ADVISORY 2
AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY MAZ001..
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT
NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>083. FREEZE WARNING 2
AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY NYZ032-033-042-082. FROST ADVISORY 2 AM TO 7
AM EDT FRIDAY NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-058-083-084.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT VTZ013>015. FROST ADVISORY 2
AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY VTZ013>015.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

NYZ032-033-042-082-301100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN FULTON-
726 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM
EDT FRIDAY...SEE WARNING STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...HERKIMER...HAMILTON...WARREN AND FULTON.
COUNTIES ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGE VIA AMATEUR
RADIO FREQUENCIES...NYSPIN LSR...SEVERE WEATHER REPORTING FORM AND
TELEPHONE.

MAZ001-NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-058-083-084-VTZ013>015-301100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-WESTERN ALBANY-WESTERN GREENE-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
726 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM
EDT FRIDAY...SEE WARNING AND ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALBANY...FULTON...GREENE...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY
SARATOGA...SCHOHARIE...SCHENECTADY...WARREN...WASHINGTON...BENNINGTON
...WINDHAM AND BERKSHIRE. COUNTIES ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS
OF DAMAGE VIA AMATEUR RADIO FREQUENCIES...NYSPIN LSR...SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTING FORM AND TELEPHONE.

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ049-050-052>054-059>061-063>066-301100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
726 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON...SEE WARNING STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...GREENE...
RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...SCHENECTADY...ULSTER...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD. COUNTIES ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGE VIA
AMATEUR RADIO FREQUENCIES...NYSPIN LSR...SEVERE WEATHER REPORTING
FORM AND TELEPHONE.

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK

TROOP E

0647AM     THU SEP 29 2005

EOSO WLSR

01830    FILE 28   ONTARIO CO SHERIFF OFFICE  NY0340000      SEP 29-05

TO       ATTN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN HOPEWELL AND CLIFTON SPRINGS AREAS DUE TO HIGH WINDS

AUTH SHERIFF PHILIP C POVERO                     B MANEY 0645