Frost Advisory 4, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
REFRESH WORDING AND TO FIX SOME PROBLEMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

WORKZONES GONE. HAVE ALREADY HOISTED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2000 FEET ON THURSDAY. WILL SEND OUT ALL
REMAINING PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

.SYNOPSIS...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT OUR BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...
WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. A RATHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO CROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PACK A PUNCH...BRING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE
FALL SEASON WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL BEGIN STREAMING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. THE REAL PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE
ARE THE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS GIVES WINDS BETWEEN 60-70 KTS AT 850...AND UP TO 45 KTS AT 925
MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WAA
PATTERN. MUCH OF THE WIND WILL PROBABLY NOT MIX TO THE VALLEY FLOOR
(AT LEAST INITIALLY) BUT WILL HIT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEREFORE
WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(OVER 2000 FEET...WHICH OF COURSE INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS,WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS,SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES).

THE WINDS IN THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL PROBABLY PICK UP NEAR FROPA
(WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 17Z-20Z). THEY WILL PROBABLY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
SINCE THIS IS STILL TWO PERIODS AWAY...AND THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS
STILL LOW.

CONVECTION. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME MODEST CAPE (UP TO AROUND 500
J/KG). WITH SUCH A POTENT FRONT...WILL STILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER. THE PROBLEM IS...ANY THUNDERSTORM (EVEN ONE WITH ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE) ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS) WILL REQUIRE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING (AS OPPOSED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING). IF
A QUASI-SQUALL LINE FORMS WITH THE FRONT...WE WOULD MORE LIKELY BE
ISSUING SVR THAN A HWW FOR THE VALLEY AREAS.

THE FRONT AND ALL ITS WEATHER WILL BLAST TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW
EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
OFFSET BY H850 DROPPING TO AROUND 0C...WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TO
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. (IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR
AGAIN ALREADY). THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES (OR IN THIS CASE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS) FOR THURSDAY
EVENING.

AFTER AWHILE...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NW AND ANY LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS (AND OR SPRINKLES) SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THEN...WITH A
CLEARING SKY AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE
TO THE LOWEST VALUES SINCE LAST SPRING. MANY SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING OR LOWER. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ANY FREEZING
WARNINGS SINCE WE HAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT HAND...AND STILL
ANOTHER FULL PACKAGE BEFORE HAVING TO ISSUE ANY COLD HEADLINES.

FRIDAY WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT REMAINING ON THE
COOL SIDE.

WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV NOS THROUGHOUT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS WENT
LOWER (BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE MET NOS) FOR KGFL FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LOOKS FAIRLY
QUITE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. DRY SAT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WARMUP
ANTICIPATED. FOR SOME FOLKS...IT CAN BE CALLED INDIAN SUMMER (AS
SOME PLACES MIGHT EXPERIENCE A KILLING FROST). ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA COME NEXT WEEK...BRINING SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ABOUT SEASONABLE). KEEP MOST OF THE EXTENDED
DRY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR EASTERLY FLOW WHICH MIGHT TAP
SOME MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND GIVE US DIRTY HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THEN MVRF CIGS.
VSBY WILL DECREASE TO MVFR/IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER AS
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BECOME VERY STRONG ALOFT AFTER 06Z AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD. IT WILL BE WEST OF KDTW AT 00Z THIS
EVENING...NEAR KROC AT 12Z THURSDAY...KALB AT 18Z AND EAST OF KBOS
AT 00Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL END BY 22Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT MIGHT GUST TO 40KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ARE LOW...AND WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT NO FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.  A COLD FRONT
MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MAY BRING 0.25 TO 0.50
INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING.  DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD BY EVENING AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2000 FEET
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES FROM 7AM-6PM THURSDAY.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2000 FEET
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS FROM
7AM-6PM THURSDAY.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2000 FEET
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GREENS FROM 7AM-6PM THURSDAY.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GG
HYDROLOGY...GG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-291100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
440 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7AM TO 6PM THURSDAY FOR
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2000 FEET...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. SEE THE HIGH WIND MESSAGE PRODUCT FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. ONE OR TWO OF THESE MIGHT BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ANY THUNDERSTORM
WOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST...AT UP TO 50 MPH.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE WIND RAPIDLY DIMINISHES...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL APPROACH OR POSSIBLY EVEN DIP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZING WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH THE
NEXT PACKAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY. PLEASE REPORT
ANY MEASURED WIND...SUSTAINED 40 MPH OR HIGHER...OR GUSTING OVER 57
MPH...OR WIND RELATED DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.