Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 PM AST THU DEC 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE DATELINE WITH ONE LOBE
OF ENERGY RAPIDLY APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND AND THE OTHER LOCATED
ALONG KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE TWO WAVES OF ENERGY ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACK NORTH INTO ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEKEND.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 961 MB LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF PADU AND A SECONDARY 964 MB LOW LOCATED IN NORTON
SOUND. THIS LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ADVECT INTO THE SEWARD PENNINSULA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME COLDER AND DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE WEST.

MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ETA INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL BOTH ON
THE 500 MB PATTERN AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. IN THE SHORT TERM ETA SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE COLDER
THAN THE GFS AND MORE AGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF COLDER
AIR MASS THAN THE GFS. AT THIS TIME FORECASTS LEANING TOWARD THE
GFS. IN ANY EVENT COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK
INTO ALASKA STARTING THIS WEEKEND.

NORTH SLOPE...LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD WE EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
OF THE NORTH SLOPE ZONES AND BLOWING SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN ZONES 201 AND 202.

WEST COAST...NUMEROUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT DUE TO
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN ZONE 213 AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ALUETIAN LOW AND THE SIBERIAN
HIGH CONTINUES TO FUEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS
INDICATE THE BEGINING OF A COOLING AND DRYING TREND. UNTIL THEN
SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP IT RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.
&&

DEC 05