Freezing Rain Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK43 PAFG 100539
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
839 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

AKZ218-219-221-100645-
/X.CAN.PAFG.ZR.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-051210T0600Z/
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...
BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB...NENANA...ANDERSON...
TANANA...MINTO...MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...
LIVENGOOD
839 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
529 AM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...

..A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND..

ALOFT...LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DATELINE WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS. THE
TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A 475 DM LOW NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THE MOST
IMPORTANT FEATURES FOR OUR WEATHER ARE TWO SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ONE IS JUST COMING
ASHORE FROM BRISTOL BAY AND THE SECOND IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. A 500 MB RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER PROVIDING FOR WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN ALASKA.

SURFACE...REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WEST OF BETHEL IS GIVING WAY
TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOME THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME AND BRING SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS TO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GULF OF ALASKA LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND
IS MORE THAN 5 MB DEEPER THAN MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WOULD HAVE IT.
THIS LOW WILL BRING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND WILL KEEP WINDS MODERATELY STRONG IN ZONES
225 AND 226.

MODELS...GFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE ETA BASED
ON THE 500 MB PATTERN. THE GFS ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC
INITIALIZATION AND EVOLUTION WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE FORECAST THEREFORE LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON THE GFS ESPECIALLY IN
THE EARLIER PERIODS.

NORTH SLOPE...CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT OUR
NORTH SLOPE ZONES BUT THE WEATHER WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO
NEAR BARROW BY SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE NORTH SLOPE BRINING WITH IT STRONGER WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION SOME HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL OVER
ZONES 201..202..AND 205 BRINING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF NEW SNOW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY.

WEST COAST...WARM AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW THAT IS PRESENT OVER ALL BUT THE VERY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THESE ZONES. IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING THIS
MORNING WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION REPORTED AT NOME. A NEW BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE FROM
BRISTOL BAY WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGHOUT OUR WEST COAST ZONES BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS INCLUDING AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA WHERE PRIMARILY SNOW WILL FALL. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. COOLING AND DRYING
WILL OCCUR BY TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO REGAIN CONTROL AND
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.

INTERIOR...LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS
SEEING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COOLING DOWN RAPIDLY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR ZONES 218..219..AND 221 WHERE LIGHT
SNOW AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS EVENING
CAUSING OUR STRONG WINDS IN ZONES 223..225..AND 226 TO WEAKEN BY
THIS EVENING. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD REGIME SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD
FILTER INTO THE INTERIOR. SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO AREAS NOT INFLUENCED BY A WEAKENED CHINOOK FLOW. THE
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN FAIRBANKS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED...GLOBAL MODELS IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE
GFS..UKMET..AND ECMWF ALL RETROGRADE THE CURRENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING RIDING TO BUILD FURTHER WEST INTO
ALASKA. HOWEVER THIS KEEPS THE STATE IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FINAL LOCATION
OF THE WESTWARD MOVING RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY PARTS OF
ALASKA DRY OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. UNFORTUNATELY THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A CLEAR ANSWER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ216-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JMA DEC 05