Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT MON AUG 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UNUSALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF THE
ORDER OF +25 TO +35 DAM. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
WITH SIMILAR 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS FROM ECMWF...GFS...AND UKMO RUNS.

590 DAM 500 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY WITH
HEIGHT REMAINING NEAR 590 DAM. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
ONLY A LITTLE...TO ABOUT 585 DAM.

TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CAN BE EXPECTED TO RISE
TO 80 OR ABOVE ON AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS DURING THE WEEK.
SOME SITES...INCLUDING FAIRBANKS...ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH
OR EXCEED RECORD DAILY HIGHS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S IN SOME SPOTS. AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READING
AT THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT NEAR 17C.

A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY LATE IN THE WEEK...LIMITING MIXING
AND CREATING POOR DISPERSION...TRAPPING SMOKE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH NIGHTTIME SURFACE
INVERSIONS FORMING AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING DAYLIGHT HOURS...
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY
IN SMOKE OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LOW.

SOUTHWESTERLY GALES OVER MARINE AREAS 210-220-225 AND PORTIONS
OF ZONES 201-207 WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 25 KT OR LESS
MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BRISK SW WINDS ALONG NORTHWEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SURF ALONG COAST
IN PORTIONS OF ZONE 202 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

.HYDRO...NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
 INTERIOR WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH. POOR DISPERSION RESULTING
 IN SMOKY CONDITIONS OVER MANY AREAS. NO RED FLAG WATCHES
 OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE INTERIOR
 WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
 ZONE 201...HIGH WIND WRNG.
 ZONE 202...HIGH SURF ADV.
 ZONE 207...HIGH SURF ADV. WIND ADV.
 ZONE 208...WIND ADV.
MARINE...
 PKZ200...SMALL CRAFT ADV.
 PKZ210...GALE WRNG.
 PKZ215...SMALL CRAFT ADV.
 PKZ220...GALE WRNG.
 PKZ225...GALE WRNG.
 PKZ230...SMALL CRAFT ADV.
 PKZ235...SMALL CRAFT ADV.
 PKZ240...SMALL CRAFT ADV.
 PKZ245...SMALL CRAFT ADV.

RF AUG 05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
952 AM ADT MON AUG 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE LISBURNE           68.88N 166.11W
08/08/2005  51 MPH                              AK   AWOS

            1822G44 KNOTS

&&

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