Small Craft Advisory 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
607 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE 964 MB LOW BETWEEN SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND PACZ
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ABOUT THAT DEPTH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO BE
OVER THE YUKON DELTA AT 4PM TODAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT
TO BE ABOUT 972 MB NEAR PAKK AT 4AM TUE...AND 976 MB NORTHWEST OF
PASH AT 4PM TUE. ITS OCCLUDED FRONT IS INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND IS ALREADY POORLY DEFINED IN THE SURFACE DATA...BECOMING A SERIES
OF WAVES MORE THAN A FRONT. EXPECT IT TO BE ALOFT FROM ABOUT PAOT TO
PAMH TO PANC AT 4PM TODAY AND DIFFUSE FROM PAWI-PAKP-PABI AT 4AM TUE.

THE MODELS ARE GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THIS THING...WHICH IS NOT AT ALL
UNREASONABLE. WHEATHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS DEBATABLE OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR (EXCEPT ZONE 215)...AND WE
HAVE GIVEN THE SNOW CONSIDERABLE PLAY (PARTICULARLY OVER THE NULATO
HILLS). THE EASTERN INTERIOR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WELL DOWNSLOPED...
THOUGH NOT PERFECTLY...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE ON TUE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WED AND THU IS PRETTY GOOD. ANOTHER LOW MOVES
EAST OVER THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND TUE TO BE ABOUT 978 MB BETWEEN
PASA AND PAEM AT 10 PM TUE...THEN MOVES CYCLONICALLY BACK NORTHWEST.
A WAVE ON THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH
OF PADU WED TUE AFTERNOON AND IS A 978 MB CENTER IN THE PAKN-PADQ ARE
AT 4PM WED. THIS ONE APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE THE EASTERN INTERIOR A
MUCH STRONGER CHINOOK THAN WE HAVE SEEN YET THIS SEASON...WITH WARNING
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE IN ZONES 225 AND 226.

EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND...THE ARCTIC ZONES APPEAR LIKELY TO MISS MOST OF
THE FUN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ214.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ212-AKZ215.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ210.

&&

DJH OCT 05