Small Craft Advisory 155, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
427 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD OF 60
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND THE ETA DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE DEPTH
OF SOME OF THE FEATURES...THE MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THOSE
FEATURES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS SHOULD LEND A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AS WE MOVE ALONG IN TIME.

THE FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE REASON FOR
THIS BEING IMPORTANT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS THAT WITH THE LOW
MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD PATTERN IT WILL PULL THE TRANSITORY
RIDGE TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

A STRONG ARCTIC LOW STILL CENTERED OVER MAINLAND FAR EAST RUSSIA
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF WRANGELL ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG A MAJORITY OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY.

THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DECENT POOLED UP COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL BE THE RIGHT COMBINATION TO WATCH THE
TEMPERATURES SINK TO SUB-ZERO READINGS OVER SOME OF THE COLD PRONE
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A LOOK AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO PROMISE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE NEXT LOW WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE
TRANSITORY RIDGE. THE LONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST ON
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE USHERING IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.
THIS LOW APPEARS TO HAVE DECENT SUPPORT ALOFT AS WELL.

WITH THIS LOW WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS...SPECIFICALLY FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
DECENT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA. BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA DOES EXIST AND SHOULD BE MONITORED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

CF OCT 05