Gale Warning 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 161134
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
334 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-170000-
334 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST 
OVER THE ALASKA PORTION OF THE CHUKCHI SEA SUN AND WEAKEN. 
AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN. IT WILL BE A 970 MB CENTER
NEAR DALL POINT AT 6 AM MON.

$$

PKZ200-170000-
NORTON SOUND-
334 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO
9 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...SNOW.
.TUE...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-170000-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
334 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-170000-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
334 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
EARLY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-170000-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
334 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

TF/CF OCT 05

000
FZAK52 PAFG 162250
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
250 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-171400-
250 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 MB LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
AND DISSIPATE. ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OF
KOTZEBUE AND NORTON SOUNDS THIS EVENING. A 985 MB LOW IN THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB JUST WEST OF DALL POINT BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL REACH NORTON SOUND AS A 965 MB LOW ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND KOTZEBUE SOUND AS A 975 MB LOW ON TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW OF 980 MB WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA ON TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ200-171400-
NORTON SOUND-
250 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-171400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
250 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT SHIFTING TO N AND INCREASING
TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON...NW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-171400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
250 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING E 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
FOG...SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-171400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
250 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

RF/JWA OCT 05

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
427 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD OF 60
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND THE ETA DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE DEPTH
OF SOME OF THE FEATURES...THE MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THOSE
FEATURES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS SHOULD LEND A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AS WE MOVE ALONG IN TIME.

THE FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE REASON FOR
THIS BEING IMPORTANT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS THAT WITH THE LOW
MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD PATTERN IT WILL PULL THE TRANSITORY
RIDGE TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

A STRONG ARCTIC LOW STILL CENTERED OVER MAINLAND FAR EAST RUSSIA
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF WRANGELL ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN
SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG A MAJORITY OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY.

THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DECENT POOLED UP COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL BE THE RIGHT COMBINATION TO WATCH THE
TEMPERATURES SINK TO SUB-ZERO READINGS OVER SOME OF THE COLD PRONE
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A LOOK AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO PROMISE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE NEXT LOW WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE
TRANSITORY RIDGE. THE LONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST ON
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE USHERING IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.
THIS LOW APPEARS TO HAVE DECENT SUPPORT ALOFT AS WELL.

WITH THIS LOW WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS...SPECIFICALLY FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
DECENT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA. BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA DOES EXIST AND SHOULD BE MONITORED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

CF OCT 05