Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
430 AM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE SHORT TERM ARE WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW TAKING UP RESIDENCE NEAR BARROW. THIS WILL GIVE INTERMITTENT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE TO NEAR
NOTHING. THIS WILL BE THE NORM FOR SEVERAL PLACES ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST.

THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE MONSTER LOW THAT IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. WHAT THIS IS WILL DO IS MESH INTO THE LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STEER MOISTURE
UP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. A GOOD APART OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RAIN..ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE STATE WITH PORTIONS IN THE WEST
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE WILL TRANSGRESS EVER SO SLOWLY TO
THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE HUGE LOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE DIRTY RIDGE TO TAKE SHAPE AND WILL PROVIDE A PERFECT
SETUP TO USHER IN MOISTURE TO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A HUGE ARCTIC LOW MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY MEAN
STRONG WINDS ON THE WEST COAST AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ARCTIC
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE WE HAVE A DECENT LOW MOVING TO NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STIMULATE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE

A LITTLE BAND OF MOISTURE HAS BROKE OFF AND IS SPREADING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT FAIRBANKS NORTHWARD
PRESENTLY. THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE A
FEW PLACES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE THAT ARE
SEEING A LITTLE UPSLOPE SNOW. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING
AS WELL ALTHOUGH THIS AREA MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF OCT 05