Gale Warning 85, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 142225
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

UPDATED ZONE 220

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-151515-
225 PM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE EAST FRI NIGHT. A 1011
MB NEAR BARROW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER
FRONT WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CHUKCHI
AND BERING SEAS SAT AND TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA SUN.
A 989 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SUN.


$$

PKZ200-151515-
NORTON SOUND-
225 PM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-151515-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
225 PM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.SAT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT.
FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-151515-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
225 PM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-151515-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
225 PM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...S WINDS 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

OCT 05

000
FZAK52 PAFG 151130
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-160000-
330 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
MODERATE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING. THE WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON SAT AND WILL EXTEND FROM
WRANGEL ISLAND TO BERING STRAIT SOUTH THROUGH SAVOONGA AT 6AM 
SUN.

$$

PKZ200-160000-
NORTON SOUND-
330 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND FOG.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG...
RAIN.
.MON...NW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-160000-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
330 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND FOG.
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.MON...NW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-160000-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
330 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG...SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FOG. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-160000-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
330 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

TF/CF OCT 05

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
430 AM ADT FRI OCT 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN
THE SHORT TERM ARE WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW TAKING UP RESIDENCE NEAR BARROW. THIS WILL GIVE INTERMITTENT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE TO NEAR
NOTHING. THIS WILL BE THE NORM FOR SEVERAL PLACES ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST.

THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE MONSTER LOW THAT IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. WHAT THIS IS WILL DO IS MESH INTO THE LONG
WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STEER MOISTURE
UP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. A GOOD APART OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RAIN..ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE STATE WITH PORTIONS IN THE WEST
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE WILL TRANSGRESS EVER SO SLOWLY TO
THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE HUGE LOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE DIRTY RIDGE TO TAKE SHAPE AND WILL PROVIDE A PERFECT
SETUP TO USHER IN MOISTURE TO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A HUGE ARCTIC LOW MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY MEAN
STRONG WINDS ON THE WEST COAST AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ARCTIC
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE WE HAVE A DECENT LOW MOVING TO NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
STIMULATE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE

A LITTLE BAND OF MOISTURE HAS BROKE OFF AND IS SPREADING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT FAIRBANKS NORTHWARD
PRESENTLY. THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE A
FEW PLACES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE THAT ARE
SEEING A LITTLE UPSLOPE SNOW. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING
AS WELL ALTHOUGH THIS AREA MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF OCT 05