Small Craft Advisory 112, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT WED SEP 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE 1004 MB LOW WILL LIKELY FILL THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS DIVERGE PRETTY QUICKLY CONCERNING THE ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT...BUT DO ALL SLOWLY MOVE IT EAST OR NORTHEAST...INTO CANADIAN
WATERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ITS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH OF A WEATHER MAKER IN ANY EVENT.

A PAIR OF OLD WEATHER FRONTS...NEVER VERY STRONG AND NOW MAINLY ALOFT
...WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. THE MODELS DO NOT DEMONSTRATE A GREAT DEAL
OF CONSISTENCY ON THESE EITHER...BUT AGAIN WE EXPECT LITTLE EXCITEMENT
FROM THEM.

THE NEXT MAIN EVENT IS THE 980 MB LOW EAST OF SHEMYA. THIS LOW IS
ABOUT 6 MB DEEPER THAN THE MODELS WOULD HAVE IT AT THIS POINT. THEY
ALL HAVE GETTING AT LEAST THAT DEEP...BUT QUITE SLOWLY. WE EXPECT
HOWEVER THAT THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION..MOVING THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST TODAY TO BE JUST WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 10 PM...
THEN LETTING IT BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WAGGLES AROUND UNDER
THE LOW ALOFT...WILL STILL WORK OUT OK. GALES DEVELOPING OVER AREAS
210 AND 200 AS THE WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
BE FROM ABOUT PAGM TO PABE AT 10 PM TONIGHT AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
FROM PASH TO PAGA AND SOUTHWARD AT 10 AM THU. QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
FROM THIS ONE.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AREA 210 AND
           TONIGHT IN AREA 200
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA 210...DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
           IN AREA 200...AND TONIGHT IN AREAS 215-20-25.

DJH SEP 05