Small Craft Advisory 110, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT TUE SEP 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME FRAME GFS ADVERTISES THE NEXT BERING SEA LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD WHILE ETA REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THAT POSITION AND SLOWLY
WEAKENS IT. EITHER WAY THE LOW WILL LIKELY NOT ENTER THE WEST
COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILT IN NICELY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A LOW NEAR CAPE LISBURNE WILL MEANDER UP NEAR
WAINWRIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH 60 HRS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL MAKE LAND BY THIS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE ADVISORY LEVEL ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
THE ARCTIC COAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT PROVIDED BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND THE BERING SEA LOW. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM AS WINDS TURN TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND HALTING
ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT LOW AND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE AND COULD SUPPLY AMPLE MOISTURE TO THAT AREA ESPECIALLY IN
TERMS OF OROGRAPHIC MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DUE
TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE
EAST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS POSITION CAUSING A GRADIENT
WITH THE BERING SEA LOW.

.HYDRO...NONE.
.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 210.
         SCA 200..235..240..245.

CF SEP 05