Brisk Wind Advisory 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM AST FRI JAN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...EXTREME HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST AK WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH MONDAY. LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL CURVE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC BASIN TO BANKS ISLAND SUNDAY.
TROUGH OVER CHUKOTSK PEN AND RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST TO
CANADA BORDER 3PM SAT AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO ANAKTUVUK PASS AND
GAMBELL. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO CANADA WITH STRONG
AND COLD NW FLOW BEHIND IT.

SURFACE...WARM FRONT NOW FROM BARROW TO NEAR BARTER ISLAND WILL
MOVE EAST NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW OVER CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA MOVES TO BARROW TO LISBURNE AT 3AM SAT AND TO BARTER
ISLAND TO BETTLES TO NORTON SOUND AT 3PM SAT AND THEN AT 3PM SUN
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND YUKON DELTA...PASSING
THROUGH FAIRBANKS SAT NIGHT. BEHIND COLD FRONT SURFACE HIGH AROUND
1050 MB MOVING EAST OVER RUSSIA TO CHUKOTSK PENINSULA SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL FEATURES AND
FEATURES ALOFT.  THOUGH NOT WELL DEFINED YET...EXPECT ARCTIC FRONT
TO FOLLOW COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN AK...COINCIDENT WITH
A SECOND TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TO NORTH SLOPE 3AM SUNDAY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...NORTHERN ALASKA WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED
THE RAPID TRANSITION FROM ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH TO ARCTIC COLD WITH
MONDAY AM TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT
PERHAPS YUKON DELTA AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE NORTH SLOPE
WILL ALREADY SEE THESE TEMPERATURES SUN AM AND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT ON SUNDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...SPOTTY SNOW AND FOG WITH WARM FRONT THIS EVENING.
WEST WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND SNOW SPREADING EAST LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
FOR ZONES 203 AND 204 TO WARNING.  ZONE 202 MAY HAVE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SAT IN BLOWING SNOW AND WIND...AND 206 SHOULD HAVE
ADVISORY SNOWFALL SATURDAY. HIGH WIND FOR LISBURNE IN ZONE 201
WILL END WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SAT AM. OTHERWISE WINDS
REMAINING STRONG OVER 203 AND 204 INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MORE COLD ADVECTION COMES WITH SECOND UPPER TROUGH/ARCTIC FRONT.

WESTERN AK...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW WITH/BEHIND FRONT...MOST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER MOUNTAINS OF ZONE 210. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CHUKOTSK PENINSULA SUNDAY...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW WITH IT BUT MOST OF THE
MOISTURE SHOULD FALL OUT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
ALASKA RANGE ZONES 225 AND 226 MAY SEE A FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION
SUNDAY...THOUGH MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE BRISK NORTH WINDS IN THE
PASSES AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES. REST OF INTERIOR WILL HAVE BRISK
WINDS AS WELL WITH/BEHIND COLD FRONT.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 203 204 SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 201 AT PALU TONIGHT.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 202 206...AND OVER HILLS OF 219
          220 221 222.
         WIND ADVISORY 201 205.
MARINE...GALE 11B.
         SMALL CRAFT/BRISK WIND 9B 10B 11A.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 9B.

JL JAN 05