Storm Warning 251, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220042
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW 35 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND
NEAR RESURRECTION BAY WED EVENING. A 979 MB LOW 520 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO SEWARD AND WEAKEN TO 989 MB FRI MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-221500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S AT 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-221500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR BAYS AND PASSES THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-221500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-221500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED DEC 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. PREFER THE GFS MODEL FOR BOTH
DOMAINS FOR ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION IN THE EAST AND BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN THE WEST.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL
ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE ERODED FROM THE WEST BY A SERIES OF LOWS IN
THE GULF AND FROM THE NORTH BY AN ARCTIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THAT RIDGE DOES NOT SEEM TO COMPLETELY ERODE
AWAY THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TRACK OF LOWS UP THROUGH THE
GULF INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IS BEING PUSHED EAST BY A RIDGE ENTERING THE ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO MOST OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUND AND
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE...BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING
SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN TO THE MATSU VALLEY...ANCHORAGE AND WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ENDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING HAS AN INVERSION REACHING UP INTO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IN ADDITION AS WELL. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST
INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY IN FRONT OF A SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED FROM
ABOVE. THAT RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEGINNING
THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA PUSHES EAST.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHAIN BRINGING STORM FORCE
WINDS AND PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND ATTAINS ITS ENERGY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF JUST SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY YET ANOTHER LOW FROM OUT
WEST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS LOW AND TAKE ITS ENERGY AWAY
BEFORE SPINNING UP THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 185
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR/BL DEC 05