Small Craft Advisory 1071, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE DEC 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES
IN PRESSURE AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS. THE ETA MODEL IS PREFERRED
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE GFS HAS A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION IN
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA.

UPPER AIR...THE RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO CENTRAL ALASKA
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AND A UPPER LOW NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND
MOVES TOWARD WRANGELL ISLAND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BE DISPLACED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MIRROR THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE IN THE NORTH GULF WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN...WITH A FEW AREAS OF SNOW... WILL MOVE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO ANCHORAGE, THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF ANCHORAGE WEDNESDAY.

OUT OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN, THE LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF 50N LATITUDE THROUGH FRIDAY.

A 956 MB LOW EAST OF JAPAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 350 MILES
SOUTH ATTU AND DEEPEN TO 944 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 05