Storm Warning 248, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 160059
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATES AS
IT REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BY EVENING. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT DECREASING TO SE 25 KT BY
MORNING. SEAS 18 FT DECREASING TO 12. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED DEC 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE THE WESTERN BERING WITH AN ENORMOUS
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY. A SMALLER SCALE CUT-OFF LOW IS
NEAR THE AKPEN. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS APPROACHING THE AKPEN WITH
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A LARGE LOW IS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. ANOTHER LOW IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE TAKING THE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN NORTH. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH SLOWS THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW UNTIL IT FINALLY REACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
KODIAK ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.

EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...
THE INITIAL AKPEN LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND TURNAGAIN ARM THROUGH TONIGHT. ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION  WILL PERSIST OVER THE COAST AND NORTH TO THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW INLAND. A
BREAK WILL OCCUR EARLY THU AND THEN THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES KODIAK
ISLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND
TURNAGAIN ARM BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS THU NIGHT.
BY THIS TIME STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTH FLOW WILL ASSURE ALL
PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...MOST PRECIP WILL FALL WELL
SOUTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS ON UPSLOPE SIDES OF MOUNTAINS.

WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL DOWNSLOPE MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ALTHOUGH A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSING BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE... THE BERING BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS IS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...SO SHOWERY ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         STORMS 130
         GALES 120 132 138 140 150 160 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05