Gale Warning 1065, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 161259
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF STRETCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
FRI EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATES BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 997 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SEWARD FRI EVENING AND DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 30 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO SE 20 KT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS.
WINDS BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO E 20 KT. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN . 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU DEC 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL WEST COAST AND
ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING AND A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AKPEN INTO THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...LOWS ARE NEAR SITKINAK AND SHEMYA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TWO DAYS BEFORE DIVERGING IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS. SINCE MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF...THE NAM WAS USED FOR EARLY PERIODS AND THE GFS WAS USED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

IN THE EAST...THE MAIN PLAYER TONIGHT IS THE SITKINAK LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE AKPEN INTO WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IT WILL
INDUCE WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE...MAINLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BUT POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN IN
FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE COAST AS DOWNSLOPING MINIMIZES
PRECIP IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...SNOWFALL
SHOULD STILL AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WEST OF SKWENTNA AND NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WARM AIR OVERRUNNING ENTRENCHED COLD AIR WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT.

AS THE SITKINAK LOW PROGRESSES TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT...A TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF ON FRI..BRINGING THE LAST
SURGE OF RAIN TO THE COAST. RIDGE BUILDING IN THE GULF WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THE
WEEKEND.

IN THE WEST...AS THE SITKINAK LOW MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING COLDER
AIR ALOFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA ON FRIDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS UP SHOULD BRING SNOW THAT
CUTS OFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
DRY.

THE BERING LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY FRI NIGHT WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
OVER THE BERING WILL BECOME NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT
NORTH PACIFIC LOW ARRIVES SAT AND BRINGS AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         GALES 120 125 130 132 138 140 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05