Storm Warning 176, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 170438 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
830 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

UPDATED ZONES 160 165 185 AND 179

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 965 MB EARLY MON MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MON AFTERNOON WHICH
SETS UP A MODERATE WESTERLY FETCH OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE NEXT
LOW WILL DEVELOP TO 978 MB NEAR 200 NM W OF SAINT MATTHEW TUE
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-171400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-171400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
830 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-171400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
830 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-171400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171400-
UNALASKA BAY
830 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN THE INNER HARBOR WITH SWELLS TO 16
FT OUTSIDE. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 171148
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 964 MB STORM FORCE LOW NEAR 60 NM NORTHWEST OF MEKORYUK
WILL MOVE NEAR SHISHMAREF AT 974 MB TUE MORNING AND OVER THE 
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. 
A 986 MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON WILL 
BECOME A 976 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-180200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-180200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS 
TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-180200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W WIND 55 KT AFTER NOON. GUSTS TO 
70 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-180200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W DURING THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 
65 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-180200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 65 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-180200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT IN THE BERING SEA AND 16 FT IN THE
PACIFIC. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT IN THE BERING SEA AND 12 FT IN
THE PACIFIC. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-180200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT IN THE
INNER HARBOR WITH SWELLS TO 16 FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE HARBOR. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-180200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-180200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-180200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-180200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-180200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

A 964 MB STORM FORCE LOW NEAR 60 NM NORTHWEST OF MEKORYUK
WILL MOVE UP THE BERING COAST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SHISHMAREF AT
974 MB TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN CURVE NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
MAINTAINING INTENSITY. THE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. 25 TO 50 KT NORTHWESTERLIES BLANKET
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 TO 40 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LENGTHY WESTERLY FETCH
COMBINED ACROSS THE BERING WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 6 FT
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY COASTS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TIDES TODAY 2 TO 5 FT ABOVE
MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM THE LOW THROUGH
THE YUKON DETLA...WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...AND EASTERN BRISTOL
BAY...THE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. FRONTAL POSITION IS MARKED BY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL PASSAGES
AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 35 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVER. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ONWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. RAIN IS MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR.

NEXT BIG THING FOR THE BERING...
A 986 MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
A 976 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THIS MEANS MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST GALES
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

NEXT BIG THING FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA...
GFS AND UKMET GENERALLY NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS...00Z THU.
GFS ALSO NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUN. HOWEVER...BOTH
GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 980 MB LOW ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR SAND POINT AT 00Z THU. GFS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS THIS LOW TO 958 MB AND MOVES IT NEAR KODIAK CITY
BY 18Z FRI...THEN HAS IT RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY MORNING. THE OFFICIAL EXTENDED
FORECASTS DO NOT REFLECT THE GFS SOLUTION. RATHER THE LOW WAS
ASSUMED TO BE AT LEAST 10 MB WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD 155 161
MARINE...GALE 120 130 141 150 155 165 170 171 172 176
         STORM 160 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ASB OCT 05