Gale Warning 824, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171155
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND BY MON AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
MON NIGHT. THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE 
TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-180200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

A 964 MB STORM FORCE LOW NEAR 60 NM NORTHWEST OF MEKORYUK
WILL MOVE UP THE BERING COAST. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SHISHMAREF AT
974 MB TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN CURVE NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
MAINTAINING INTENSITY. THE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. 25 TO 50 KT NORTHWESTERLIES BLANKET
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 TO 40 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LENGTHY WESTERLY FETCH
COMBINED ACROSS THE BERING WILL YIELD A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 6 FT
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY COASTS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TIDES TODAY 2 TO 5 FT ABOVE
MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM THE LOW THROUGH
THE YUKON DETLA...WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...AND EASTERN BRISTOL
BAY...THE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. FRONTAL POSITION IS MARKED BY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL PASSAGES
AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 35 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVER. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOW EASTWARD AND SHOULD REACH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ONWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. RAIN IS MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR.

NEXT BIG THING FOR THE BERING...
A 986 MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
A 976 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THIS MEANS MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST GALES
ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

NEXT BIG THING FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA...
GFS AND UKMET GENERALLY NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS...00Z THU.
GFS ALSO NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUN. HOWEVER...BOTH
GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 980 MB LOW ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR SAND POINT AT 00Z THU. GFS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS THIS LOW TO 958 MB AND MOVES IT NEAR KODIAK CITY
BY 18Z FRI...THEN HAS IT RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BY THE FOLLOWING MONDAY MORNING. THE OFFICIAL EXTENDED
FORECASTS DO NOT REFLECT THE GFS SOLUTION. RATHER THE LOW WAS
ASSUMED TO BE AT LEAST 10 MB WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD 155 161
MARINE...GALE 120 130 141 150 155 165 170 171 172 176
         STORM 160 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ASB OCT 05