Storm Warning 168, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 090225 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
630 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

AMENDED ZONE 180

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WILL DISSIPATE NEAR KING
SALMON SUN MORNING. A 977 MB LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB NEAR ATTU SUN AFTERNOON
AND THEN WEAKEN TO 979 MB 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MON
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
630 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SHOWERS. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.   

$$

PKZ170-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 091237 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

CORRECTED PKZ 150

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF PORT HEIDEN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN AFTERNOON. A 971 MB LOW 450 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK SUN NIGHT AND THEN
WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES TO 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR 
MON NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT SUN NIGHT 75 NM
WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR AND MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY MON
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-100200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-100200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. SEAS
16 FT EXCEPT 31 FT SOUTH OF AMCHITKA. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
30 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-100200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE MATURE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
MEKORYUK ISLAND WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A WEAK OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW JUST
EAST OF KODIAK CITY. THIS FRONT AND LOW ARE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE NOTED IN THE LOCATIONS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
THAT HAVE LOST MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
EASTERN BERING LOW ARE SHOWERS ENHANCED IN SOME AREAS BY MODERATE
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. THE COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA REGION. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN A LINE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA. SOME CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ALONG THE UPPER JET  WHICH HAS AN ESTIMATED
JET STREAK OF 140 KT. THERE IS A WEAK LOW EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
NEAR 46N 163W. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW  WILL BE ONE OF THE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM/GFS/UKMET MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW FAIR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY IN EVOLUTION OF MAJOR FEATURES. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG EXPECT WEEK LOW ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN.
THERE WILL BE SOME JET SUPPORT BUT THE LOW IS NOT IN AN IDEAL
LOCATION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT LOW THINK THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH BOTTOMS
OUT AT 964 MB SUNDAY MORNING MAY BE TOO STRONG. WILL LEAD TOWARD
THE ETA PRESSURE OF 970 MB. MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LOCKSTEP WITH
OTHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM SO IT DOES NOT REALLY MATTER WHICH
MODEL SOLUTION FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON.

OVER THE MAINLAND TODAY FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
INLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SHOWERS INLAND WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS WHILE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WET. BERING
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DISSIPATE NEAR AUGUSTINE ISLAND THIS EVENING.
RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN BERING REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH TOO STRONG LOWS...ONE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ANOTHER OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA.
THE GULF LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. OTHERWISE...LOW WILL NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE
ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. THE LOW OUT WEST WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ABOUT 972 MB AND THE RIDE THE UPPER
JET EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE PATH OF THE LOW.

LOOKING TO DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 OF THE FORECAST DO NOT EXPECT ANY
MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN. IT LOOKS
LIKE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW. WHEN THE ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES TO THE GULF
TUESDAY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE BERING AND MAY MAKE IT TO
PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY THURSDAY. OF COURSE THE TRACK OF THE LOW
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL MID WEEK WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN
MOVE ON IN. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK TO THE KENAI PENINSULA EXPECT
MOST PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE WET ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH MORE OF A
SHOWERY REGIME ACROSS THE BERING REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 05