Small Craft Advisory 805, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI OCT 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR
THE INTENSE LOW COMING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY. SINCE THE
UKMET MODEL MIRRORS THE ETA MODEL BETTER, WE WILL GO WITH THE ETA
MODEL IN THE EAST DOMAIN.

UPPER AIR...
THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
SAT EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AND WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HIGHER VORTICITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS.

AT SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...A 993 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE BARREN ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF
THE FRONT OVER AFOGNAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY LATE EVENING AND
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
SATURDAY.

A LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND DEEPEN TO
968 MB SUNDAY, THEN WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS MOVES IN TO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE WIND AND RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BUT THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD FEEL SOME EFFECTS OF
THE STORM. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BLOW
THROUGH THE PASSES IN THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. RAIN WILL
SPREAD IN TO THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...THE LOW SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER 984 MB LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN TO 974 MB NEAR ATTU SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE TO 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN PRESSURE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172, 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 05