Small Craft Advisory 967, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF THIS MORNING IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF ANY SURFACE LOW IS OBSCURED BY
HIGHER CLOUDS AND PAIH RADAR SHOWS A BROAD MASS OF PRECIPITATION FROM
MIDDLETON ISLAND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. BUOY 46082 IS SHOWING
STRONG EAST WIND AND THE LOWEST PRESSURE WHICH DEMONSTRATES THAT THE
CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF THE BUOY AND ALL OTHER MARINE OBS SHOW
NORTHWEST WIND. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE DRIER AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BUT PESKY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SW COAST. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THE RULE IN THE BERING SEA IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FETCH THAT PERSISTS THERE THIS MORNING.

THERE IS TOTAL CHAOS IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK
AND DEPTH OF GULF SURFACE LOWS. BY 00Z WED (+36 HOURS) THE FORECAST
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF IS HANDLED QUITE
DIFFERENTLY ON EACH AND EVERY MODEL. THE NCEP GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SUCH
A SPREAD IN THE GULF AT A MERE 36-HOURS THAT IT IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. WE WILL CROSS OUR FINGERS AND
HOPE THAT THE 12Z GFS IS USABLE BUT WILL TEMPER THE MARINE WINDS WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WHILE KEEPING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
TO THE EAST.

AGAIN...OUT WEST LOOK FOR PERSISTENCE AS THE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY
WEST OF SHEMYA WHILE LOWS MOVE SOMEWHERE INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...HVY FRZ SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JC NOV 05