Small Craft Advisory 963, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG HEADACHE TODAY HAS BEEN THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE STORM
FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF DURING THIS DAY SHIFT. THE REASON THAT
WE UPDATED MANY FORECASTS IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN IS THAT THE NCEP
MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL ON THE 12Z RUN ON THIS SYSTEM AND
THAT IT IS TRACKING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ALL OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE ESPECIALLY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP OBS
SUPPORT THIS CHANGE. CLEARLY THE 12Z UKMET HAS THE BEST SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS HAS MEANT A BIG SWITCH FROM WIND TO
SNOW INLAND ESPECIALLY FOR THE COOK INLET AREA. THE BEST FORECAST OF
LANDFALL OF THE STORM CENTER IS NOW NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND SOMETIME
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP COOK INLET COLDER.

NEXT...WE WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT ANOTHER STORM CENTER
IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE AND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AROUND 40N 160W AT 18Z SUN. THIS DEVELOPER IS UNDER THE UPPER LEFT
QUAD OF A MONDO JET AT 250 MB OFF ASIA...SO IT HAS TO DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. ALL MODELS SLAM THIS ONE INTO CAPE SUCKLING VERY QUICKLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING AND CURVES IT BACK INTO COLDER AIR IN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MON NIGHT FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE EAST
DOMAIN.

OUT WEST LOOK FOR PERSISTENCE AS THE HIGH STAYS WEST OF SHEMYA AND
THE LOWS ROAR INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVSRY 101 111 141 145.
MARINE...STORM 120. GALES 125 130 132 150.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC NOV 05