Small Craft Advisory 960, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 210604 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
900 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

UPDATED ZONE 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB STORM CENTER 200 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR CAPE CLEARE LATER TONIGHT AT 982 MB THEN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY.
A 980 MB STORM FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MON MORNING. THE
SECOND LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE SUCKLING MON AFTERNOON THEN
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
700 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT NE
WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 15
FT...EXCEPT SEAS 10 FT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW WIND 15 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
700 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
900 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.  
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211224
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW 350 NM SE OF KODIAK WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR
CAPE SUCKLING MON NIGHT. A SECOND NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF 550 NM SE OF KODIAK AT 980 MB TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 21 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG HEADACHE TODAY HAS BEEN THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE STORM
FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF DURING THIS DAY SHIFT. THE REASON THAT
WE UPDATED MANY FORECASTS IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN IS THAT THE NCEP
MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL ON THE 12Z RUN ON THIS SYSTEM AND
THAT IT IS TRACKING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ALL OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE ESPECIALLY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP OBS
SUPPORT THIS CHANGE. CLEARLY THE 12Z UKMET HAS THE BEST SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS HAS MEANT A BIG SWITCH FROM WIND TO
SNOW INLAND ESPECIALLY FOR THE COOK INLET AREA. THE BEST FORECAST OF
LANDFALL OF THE STORM CENTER IS NOW NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND SOMETIME
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP COOK INLET COLDER.

NEXT...WE WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT ANOTHER STORM CENTER
IS ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE AND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AROUND 40N 160W AT 18Z SUN. THIS DEVELOPER IS UNDER THE UPPER LEFT
QUAD OF A MONDO JET AT 250 MB OFF ASIA...SO IT HAS TO DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. ALL MODELS SLAM THIS ONE INTO CAPE SUCKLING VERY QUICKLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING AND CURVES IT BACK INTO COLDER AIR IN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MON NIGHT FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE EAST
DOMAIN.

OUT WEST LOOK FOR PERSISTENCE AS THE HIGH STAYS WEST OF SHEMYA AND
THE LOWS ROAR INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVSRY 101 111 141 145.
MARINE...STORM 120. GALES 125 130 132 150.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC NOV 05