Gale Warning 954, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 210042
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB STORM CENTER 200 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR CAPE CLEARE LATER TONIGHT AT 982 MB THEN WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY.
A 980 MB STORM FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MON MORNING. THE
SECOND LOW WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE SUCKLING MON AFTERNOON THEN
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT SW WIND 45 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 20 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 14 FT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT SW WIND 20 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.  
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN NOV 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH RIDGING OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND OVER EASTERN RUSSIA THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
1003 MB SURFACE LOW IS FOUND JUST NE OF BETHEL THROUGH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER LOW...THE ONE THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TOTALS TO SOUTHCENTRAL YESTERDAY...HAS MOVED OVER THE WRANGELL
MOUNTAINS. PARTS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ARE STILL RECEIVING RAIN AND
SNOW...MOSTLY CAUSED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING N THROUGH THE GULF.

USING THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE BECAUSE OF ITS SEEMINGLY BETTER
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF SYSTEMS. THE FIRST...NOW
LOCATED 450 MILES SSE OF KODIAK AT ABOUT 990 MB...WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE N INTO COOK INLET TONIGHT...CONTINUING OVER ANCHORAGE AND THEN
OVER THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO START TODAY AFFECTING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COASTAL
AREAS AS WELL AS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE
COLD AIR IS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THAT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS SNOW OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND RAIN OVER THE GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS AFTER THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE GULF
TUESDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

THE DEVIATION OF THE GFS MODEL FROM YESTERDAYS RUN IN THE LONG TERM
CREATES DRASTIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES...THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGED THE LONG TERM FORECASTS COOLER TO WAIT FOR
NEW RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT 101
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 185
         GALES 130 132 150
         STORMS 120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR/DS NOV 05