Small Craft Advisory 943, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL INITIALIZED BEST AND FORECAST THROUGH 60
HOURS LOOKS REASONABLE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR BEYOND 60 HOURS
WITH NEXT BIG CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF THE AK PEN THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS IS LOW AND AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES WILL
REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG RANGE UNTIL MODELS SETTLE DOWN.

500MB...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED OVER FORECAST AREAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER OVER THE
POLE TO CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THU WITH NORTH FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SURFACE...
.EAST...UPPER 990S MB LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO
YAKUTAT THIS EVENING. COLD AIR OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MORNING SOUNDING AT PANC SHOWED
850MB TEMPS NEAR 24F THIS MORNING. FLOW PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF
WEAKENING LOWS INTO THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THU. TEMPS ARE SUCH THAT
RAIN WILL BE GENERAL RULE ALONG THE NORTH GULF/KENAI PEN. FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL OVER ANCHORAGE BOWL ON WED AFTERNOON/NGT WITH WEAK
OVERRUNNING OVER SHALLOW COLD LAYER. SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL
(ADVISORY LEVEL) POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THU AS SE
OVERRUNNING SETS UP. REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL LIKELY TO BE A MIXED
BAG.

.WEST...MAINLAND WITH EXCEPTION OF ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN HALF OF
BRISTOL BAY WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND THU ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SPIN
OFF LOWS FROM TROUGH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
FIRST WAVE TONIGHT AND SECOND(MORE SIGNIFICANT ON WED. DRYING LIKELY
THU BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE FRI. BERING SEA AREAS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY WITH N TO NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FOR MORNING PACKAGE.

RMC NOV 05