Gale Warning 942, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170039
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW OVER PORT HEIDEN MOVES TO OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
THURSDAY. A SECONDARY 965 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT
THURSDAY NIGHT MOVES TO OVER KODIAK ISLAND AT 968 MB FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 16 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL INITIALIZED BEST AND FORECAST THROUGH 60
HOURS LOOKS REASONABLE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR BEYOND 60 HOURS
WITH NEXT BIG CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF THE AK PEN THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS IS LOW AND AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES WILL
REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG RANGE UNTIL MODELS SETTLE DOWN.

500MB...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED OVER FORECAST AREAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER OVER THE
POLE TO CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THU WITH NORTH FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SURFACE...
.EAST...UPPER 990S MB LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO
YAKUTAT THIS EVENING. COLD AIR OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MORNING SOUNDING AT PANC SHOWED
850MB TEMPS NEAR 24F THIS MORNING. FLOW PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF
WEAKENING LOWS INTO THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THU. TEMPS ARE SUCH THAT
RAIN WILL BE GENERAL RULE ALONG THE NORTH GULF/KENAI PEN. FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL OVER ANCHORAGE BOWL ON WED AFTERNOON/NGT WITH WEAK
OVERRUNNING OVER SHALLOW COLD LAYER. SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL
(ADVISORY LEVEL) POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THU AS SE
OVERRUNNING SETS UP. REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL LIKELY TO BE A MIXED
BAG.

.WEST...MAINLAND WITH EXCEPTION OF ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN HALF OF
BRISTOL BAY WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MOISTURE INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND THU ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SPIN
OFF LOWS FROM TROUGH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH
FIRST WAVE TONIGHT AND SECOND(MORE SIGNIFICANT ON WED. DRYING LIKELY
THU BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE FRI. BERING SEA AREAS WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY WITH N TO NE FLOW THROUGH FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE FOR MORNING PACKAGE.

RMC NOV 05