Small Craft Advisory 933, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AST SAT NOV 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN
THEY BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE. IN THE EAST...THE ETA MODEL
BRING THE LOW INTO THE GULF FASTER WITH A DEEPER CENTER THAN THE GFS
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE IN THE WEST...THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT IS DEEPER AND FURTHER
NORTH ON THE GFS. THE UKMET DIDNT EVEN COME CLOSE TO EITHER THE GFS
OR ETA MODELS, SO IT NO HELP AT ALL. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IN
THE DAY 3 SOLUTION IS LOW. WILL GO WITH THE ETA IN THE EAST AND GFS
IN THE WEST.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL SPLITS SUNDAY MORNING. ONE PART WILL MOVE
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
OTHER PART WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW COMING OFF OF JAPAN MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF AK SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COAST MOUNTAIN WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY. THE 996 MB LOW DEVELOPING 900 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND SUNDAY WILL DEEPEN TO 994 MB OVER THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR SITKA TUESDAY. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THOUGH SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
TUESDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY
FLATTEN AS A STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVES TO ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF ADAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL DEEPEN TO
985 MB 240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ADAK TUESDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 05