Small Craft Advisory 909, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN NOV 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS BROUGHT
SNOW TO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. WARM AIR THAT WAS LURKING IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THIS
SYSTEM AND WARMED KODIAK...ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT...INTO THE
MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARM AIR HAS ALSO HELPED CREATE A TRIPLE
POINT LOW IN THE VICINITY OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS NEW LOW HAS BEEN
AIDED BY A NORTHWESTERLY JET MAX AND HAS NOW USURPED MOST OF THE
ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM LEAVING THE OLD LOW BY THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE JET MAXIMUM THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE MAIN JET
STREAM INTENSIFIES WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTH IN THAT AREA. THIS DIGGING TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER CENTRAL ALASKA FOR
THE LAST WEEK. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF
THE MAINLAND PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK THIS
WEEK.

LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS
INTO THE BERING SEA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT FORECAST.

NOV 05