Small Craft Advisory 891, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED NOV 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS..STRONG CAA IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UKMET IS THE MODEL
OF CHOICE THIS MORNING IN BOTH DOMAINS. THE UKMET AND THE NAM HANDLE
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WELL..KEEPING IT ALMOST STATIONARY NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND. PREFER THE UKMET DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ARCTIC INTRUSION PROVIDES SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY IN THE GULF TOMORROW. SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. COLD NORTH TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE
GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AS WELL.

THE JET RIDING OVER THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UP TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IN BOTH DOMAINS IS THE PRESENCE OF LOW STRATUS AND
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINLAND AK THROUGH THE MORNING FROM BETHEL TO THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL. AS THE ELONGATED VORT MAX MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. IT WILL
HOPEFULLY BE JUST DRY ENOUGH TO ALSO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL FOG SINCE
THERE IS NO NEW SNOW IN MOST AREAS. THE Y-K DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY
WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE COAST.

THE ONLY FEATURE LEFT TO MENTION IS THE DISSIPATING LOW OFF THE Y-K
COAST. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PRIBILOFS TO
THE Y-K DELTA TODAY AS THE REMNANTS WEAKEN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS 60N FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SHOWERS. FOR MOST OF AK THOUGH THE
FORECAST IS COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130 150 155 165 170 171 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW OCT 05