Gale Warning 899, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 030039 RRA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW 500 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE
TO A 1018 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS BY FRI AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ150-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-031500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED NOV 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED NOV 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS..STRONG CAA IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UKMET IS THE MODEL
OF CHOICE THIS MORNING IN BOTH DOMAINS. THE UKMET AND THE NAM HANDLE
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WELL..KEEPING IT ALMOST STATIONARY NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND. PREFER THE UKMET DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ARCTIC INTRUSION PROVIDES SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY IN THE GULF TOMORROW. SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. COLD NORTH TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE
GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST AS WELL.

THE JET RIDING OVER THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UP TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IN BOTH DOMAINS IS THE PRESENCE OF LOW STRATUS AND
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINLAND AK THROUGH THE MORNING FROM BETHEL TO THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL. AS THE ELONGATED VORT MAX MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. IT WILL
HOPEFULLY BE JUST DRY ENOUGH TO ALSO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL FOG SINCE
THERE IS NO NEW SNOW IN MOST AREAS. THE Y-K DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY
WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE COAST.

THE ONLY FEATURE LEFT TO MENTION IS THE DISSIPATING LOW OFF THE Y-K
COAST. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PRIBILOFS TO
THE Y-K DELTA TODAY AS THE REMNANTS WEAKEN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS 60N FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SHOWERS. FOR MOST OF AK THOUGH THE
FORECAST IS COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130 150 155 165 170 171 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW OCT 05