Small Craft Advisory 868, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED OCT 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND A LOW JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW IN THE GULF HAS A FEW SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND IT. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND TO CANADA AND WILL DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW IN THE YUKON THURSDAY. A SECOND IS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A THIRD SYSTEM IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO SWING AROUND THE CENTER AND DIG
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...THE LOW SPLITS INTO 3 PARTS WITH A WEAK
CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. OUT WEST...A LOW NEAR SHEMYA TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SQUEEZE
THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING NORTH TO SIBERIA THURSDAY. THE LOW
CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL REMAINS WITH THE SOUTHEAST GULF LOW MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW FROM THE BERING SLIDES INTO THE
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL THESE SYSTEM COMBINE INTO ONE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ALASKA SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE LOW CENTER FOR THIS
MAJOR LOW WORKS BACK TOWARD THE NORTON SOUND WITH THE SOUTHERN FLANK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVING TO THE PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL THE
WHILE...ANOTHER LOW MOVES NEAR KAMCHATKA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH THE
RIDGE AMPLIFYING BETWEEN THE TWO LOW SYSTEMS.

SURFACE...THREE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. ONE
OF THE LOWS IS SOUTH OF THE GULF WHILE THE OTHER IS WEAKENING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER LOW WITH A MODERATE FRONT IS SITUATED WEST
OF SHEMYA. BY TONIGHT THE LOW SOUTH OF GULF TO MOVE TOWARD THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AS THE OTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

THE LOW IN THE BERING SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD WHILE THE LOW IN THE
GULF WORKS SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY...THE LOWS WEAKEN AS THEY COMBINE OVER THE GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA. A STRONG JET
ROTATES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF LOW AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WHICH MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING AS WELL PUSHING THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST A BIT.

DETAILS...THE FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE BERING CURRENTLY BRINGING
GALE FORCE WINDS AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION. MOST PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL BE RAIN FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ST PAUL. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
RATHER MODERATE WITH NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. BIGGEST PROBLEM OVER THE EAST IS THE
REMNANT CLOUDS FROM THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE GULF. THESE ARE MAINLY
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL LAST
INTO TOMORROW BEFORE THE LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HAD
SOME MID LEVEL STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER SOME AREAS THIS MORNING
INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL STRATUS HANGING OVER
THE WEST ALONG THE WEST FACE OF MOUNTAINS. IN THE EAST...STRATUS
REMAINING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECT THE SAME TOMORROW MORNING
OVER THE SAME AREAS. WHERE THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN FROM PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 150 172 175 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN OCT 05