Small Craft Advisory 861, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE OCT 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT.
A COLD LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME FRI AND THEN RESTRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO THE GULF
FROM THE ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE.
A STATIONARY LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH
A STRONGER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WED NIGHT.  A SMALL LOW 500 NM
SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME A MODERATELY STRONG LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY THU THEN WEAKEN NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES
FRI AND MOVE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER SAT AS A WEAK LOW.  A MODERATE LOW
AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL BERING  BY THU AND TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA BY SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEATHER.
THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH SUN.  PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BERING LOW AND THE WEAKENING NORTHERN GULF LOW.  EXPECT
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND THU OVER EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE WEAKENING GULF
LOW.

STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED AND
TO THE EASTERN BERING AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THU WITH THE STROM
MOVING ACROSS THE BERING FROM THE WEST.  MOST OF THE ENERGY OF WITH
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRIDGE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF ON FRI AND SAT.  THEREFORE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW MAY NOT
REACH NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI AND SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE ZONES 172 175 176 185 410

RHH OCT 05