Small Craft Advisory 853, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
135 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA MAKEING
FOR A BLUSTERY WET DAY FROM HOMER TO SEWARD AND EAST WITH THE HEAVEIST
RAIN FOUND IN THE NORTH GULF COAST AND AT PORTAGE, WHERE OVER 2 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN STRONGEST WINDS ALSO OBSERVED IN PORTAGE VALLEY WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
GRAD RELAXES A LITTLE BUT MOSIT UNSTABLE FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE COAST, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH EVEN AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND THE WRANGLE AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS, WHERE AS MUSCH AS 6 TO 8
ADDITIONAL INCHES MAY FALL.

VISUAL SATELLITTE IMAGRY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
AND KODIAK ISLAND. ETA MOISTURE FIELDS, THAT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE
PATTERN PRETTY WELL, ROTATE THIS AREA UP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUT THE PRCIPITATION OFF OVER THE KENAI PEN AND
SUSITNA VALLEY. BY MON MORNING EVEN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WILL DRY OUT WITH WITH SOME SUN, WHICH WILL HELP OFF SET
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT FINALLY SPREAD OVER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE. LOWER DEW POINTS WITH MORE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL
HOPEFULLY KEEP ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO A MINIMUM.

WEATHER OUT WEST DOING WHAT ITS SUPPOSE TO WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING DRIVING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PRIBILOFS AND AREAS BETWEEN 160W AND 170W. THIS RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE
WIND FLOW IN THE WEST IS PROGRESSIVE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES 170W MONDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE FOX AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THE SUN.

STRONG FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN ALUTIANS WILL KICK THE WINDS BACK
UP TO 50 KTS TONIGHT. GALES REACH THE ADAK ATKA AREAS MON THEN THE
FRONT SHEARS AND WEAKENS RAPIDLY THEREAFTER AS IT TRYS TO DRIVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING RIDGE. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT UMNAK ISLAND AND A
MUCH WEAKEND BOUNDRY REACHES THAT AREA TUE MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS AREAS 175 176. GALE AREAS 155 160 165 180 170 171 172
175 176 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PERCY OCT 05