Gale Warning 847, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 240841 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1240 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

UPDATE TO AREAS 120 AND 125.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 978 MB LOW NEAR SEWARD WILL MOVE TO SKWENTNA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE.
A 984 MB LOW AT AROUND 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 325 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK LATE MON AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MON MORNING WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND 
BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-241400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1240 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1240 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...EAST WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 
6 SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1100 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS TO 20 KT...HIGHEST NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  SEAS TO 8 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1100 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT THIS EVENING.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
640 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.  
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241400-
KACHEMAK BAY
640 PM ADT SUN OCT 23 2005

.TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1255 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODELS LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. THE COLD
CORE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CURVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE CENTER TO THE ESE OF SEWARD. SO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND,  THE NORTH GULF COAST AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
STAY WET THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000 FT
ACROSS SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA MOSTLY DUE TO THE CHILLING
EFFECT OF PRECIPITATION AS OPPOSED TO ANY ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 500 FT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ENTIRE AIRMASS
COOLS SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR REMAINS OUT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AND QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS
LIKELY TO SEE A BREAK LATE SUN AND MON AS A NARROW BUT STRONG RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DROP OFF MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN
AT ST PAUL BUT UNTIL THEN SNOW SQUALLS AND FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE. SNOW ACCUMULATION WONT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM.

WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AREAS LATE SUN AND MONDAY BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GULF WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND NORTH
COAST MON AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME ENOUGH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
HAVE SEEPED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO SEA
LEVEL IN SOUTH CENTRAL BUT THERE PROBABLY WONT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. SNOW CHANCES ARE BETTER LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF MAKES FOR BETTER OVER RUNNING
CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BERING/ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED. A NICE BREAK TAKES HOLD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE AREAS 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...GOOD LUCK STARTING ONE.

PERCY OCT 05