Small Craft Advisory 830, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 161744 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

UPDATED ZONES 121 125 129 130 132 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 990 MB LOW 270 NM SOUTH OF CAPE YAKATAGA WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 
PETERSBURG SUN NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA 
SUN EVENING WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES OVER KODIAK ISLAND 
MON MORNING THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-170200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170200-
RESURRECTION BAY
940 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
940 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS IN CHANNELED AREAS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170200-
PASSAGE CANAL
940 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-170200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
940 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
940 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
940 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1130 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE COLD ANCHOR UPPER LOW IS OVER SIBERIA THIS MORNING
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 170W OR SO. THE BIG STORY IS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX THAT IS POSITIVELY TILTED FROM
NEAR THE POLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO AN UPPER LOW CENTER S
OF SAND POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER
LOW GOES WAY INTO THE TROPICS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A 975 MB STORM
CENTER ABOUT 200 NM SE OF SAND POINT AT 12Z. A TRIPLE POINT HAS
DEVELOPED 18Z AROUND 55N 145W AS PER SATELLITE AND THE SUPPORTED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW ALSO INTO THE TROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WAVE ON THIS FRONT AROUND 40N 165W. THE JET AT 250 MB 12Z HAS
BUCKLED. THERE IS A 150 KT JET OVER THE FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE. A
NORTHERLY 100 KT BRANCH IS ALONG 175W. OUT WEST ANOTHER 125KT BRANCH
FROM CENTRAL ASIA EXITS JUST W OF SHEMYA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
MODERATE FRONT ALONG 178W OR SO WITH A WAVE NEAR SHEMYA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 970 MB SURFACE LOW IN SIBERIA.

AER FORECASTS - KODIAK IS GETTING ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE STORM AT THE
MOMENT WITH AREAS OF GALES IN OUR VAST MARINE AREAS. IT IS VERY
UNUSUAL TO GET STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AT KODIAK WITHOUT RAIN SO FAR. AS
THE STORM CENTER TRACKS TOWARD SITKA ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL
MISS THE EASTERN GFE DOMAIN. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WITH
PATCHY FOG OR FROST AND SOME OFFSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT BEAST IS A
RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEM SPAWNED FROM THE MAJOR UPPER LOW. THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A FRONT WILL GET TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ON MONDAY WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND WIND. THE MODELS
FORECAST A PATTERN THAT PROMISE STRONG WINDS INCLUDING TURNAGAIN ARM.

ALU FORECASTS - AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO THE GULF A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL NOT PREVENT A COLD FRONT FROM MOVING ONTO OUR WESTERN COAST
AROUND 12Z SUN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INDICATES THAT ANY
SNOW THERE WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE TO RAIN. THE JET OFF ASIA GETS CRANKED
UP ON SUNDAY WHICH HELPS TO DEVELOP A 987 MB STORM FORCE LOW 200
MILES NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 18Z...THEN MOVES THE LOW TO NUNIVAK ISLAND
AROUND 970 MB EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOTS OF WIND WITH THESE
SYSTEMS PLUS WARM AIR AHEAD OF EACH ONE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THESE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 175 176. GALES 132 138 150 155 170 171 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC OCT 05