Small Craft Advisory 829, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THE BROAD LOW MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT INTO THE GULF TODAY. BY TOMORROW EVENING IT SHOULD MOVE
INLAND NEAR SITKA. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT
ITS EFFECT ON SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MINIMAL. BUT KODIAK AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE
WITH STRONGER WINDS BRIEFLY FELT IN SHELIKOF STRAIT.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND
PRETTY DRY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AS A VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE
SOME AREAS OF FOG AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST AK WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED VORT
MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL AFFECT THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS THROUGH SOUTHWEST AK THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO BE
OCCASIONALLY DENSE THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN THE Y-K DELTA AND
PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS.

IN THE ALEUTIANS ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE IN TO THE WESTERN BERING ON
SUN AND PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD NUNIVAK BY SUN NIGHT. STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE PRIBILOFS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLD AIR
IS ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW AND ITS FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP
TO MAINLAND AK EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE MODELS ARE DROPPING A
BOMB NORTH OF THE BERING WITH A 966 MB LOW. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO SEE
IF THE MODELS KEEP THIS ONE STRONG. THE LONG RANGE MODEL HAS ALREADY
FLIP FLOPPED SINCE YESTERDAY ON ITS POSITIONING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 175 176
         GALES 132 138 150 155 170 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW OCT 05